Standard Chartered has initiated coverage on Layer 1 blockchain Avalanche, saying it expects the network's native token AVAX to rise over 10 times to $250 by the end of 2029 from its current price of around $20.
"One positive of the tariff noise is that it gives us a chance to re-set and pick winners for the next upswing in digital asset prices," said Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank's global head of digital assets research, in an email to The Block on Wednesday while sharing his latest report. "And I think Avalanche will be another winner, perhaps the winner in EVM [Ethereum Virtual Machine] chains."
Kendrick said he likes Avalanche's approach to scaling, particularly after the recent Etna upgrade, also known as Avalanche9000.
The Etna upgrade, activated in December 2024, makes it much cheaper and easier for anyone to launch their own subnet or Layer 1 blockchain on Avalanche. These subnets — now called L1s — no longer require staking large amounts of AVAX, a change that slashed setup costs from up to $450,000 to nearly zero, Kendrick said.
He added that early signs show the Etna upgrade is working. A quarter of Avalanche's active subnets are now Etna-compatible, and developer numbers have jumped 40% since the upgrade, Kendrick said. Some developers are moving from Ethereum Layer 2s to Avalanche, taking advantage of the platform's compatibility with Ethereum code, he added.
Avalanche's Etna upgrade also made transaction fees cheaper during low activity periods. However, fees are still higher than some Ethereum L2s like Arbitrum — which is why attracting brand new apps, rather than porting over existing ones, may be more important for Avalanche's growth, according to Kendrick. He said the new subnets or L1s could help bring in fresh applications, especially in areas like gaming and consumer tools.
Given Avalanche appears to be gaining traction post-Etna, Kendrick expects AVAX to hit $55 by the end of 2025, $100 by 2026, $150 by 2027 (a new all-time high), $200 by 2028 and $250 by 2029.
"As a result, we see AVAX outperforming both Bitcoin and Ethereum in terms of relative price gains in the coming years," Kendrick said. "We note that Avalanche is highly volatile; its historical 3-month volatility is close to 100, around double that of Bitcoin."
Avalanche is also gaining ground in real-world asset tokenization, according to Kendrick. BlackRock's $1.9 billion tokenized fund BUIDL recently added support for Avalanche, with $52 million now on the network — a move that could bring more tokenized assets over time, Kendrick said.
To support growth, the Avalanche Foundation is also currently offering development incentives through two programs: Retro9000, a $40 million grant fund launched with the Etna upgrade, and InfraBUIDL, a $15 million fund for AI-related projects, Kendrick noted.
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