Polymarket, one of the most relevant crypto-based prediction market platforms, is facing problems again with the outcome of a bet involving the establishment of a bitcoin reserve in the US.
The prediction market, titled “Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?” is marred with controversy, given the recent developments regarding Trump’s administration executive order establishing a strategic bitcoin reserve.
Read more: US Bitcoin Reserve and Crypto Stockpile—White House Breaks Down Trump’s Executive Order
A resolution proposed was swiftly rejected, prompting a faceoff between both sides of the bet. Some claim that the executive order is proof enough of this event, and others claim the fine print of the bet indicates otherwise.
The rules of the prediction market describe that it “will resolve to ‘Yes’ if the US government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point between January 20, 2025, ET and April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to ‘No’.”
Nonetheless, further explanations specify that “the US government confiscating bitcoin does not count as holding bitcoin reserves,” which was crucial for the current conflict to ensue.
While some maintain that the executive order is proof enough for the market to be solved positively, others declare that the Trump Administration needs to purchase BTC, as the close to 200K BTC owned via confiscation would not count as part of the reserve under the rules described.
Only 28% of the participants are betting on this market’s positive resolution, while the rest expect the opposite. Close to $15 million is still at stake.
This is not the first time Polymarket has faced problems solving its prediction markets. Last year, the Venezuelan presidential ballot prediction market was solved in favor of the opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez, even when the election was called for President Nicolas Maduro by the National Electoral Council, the Venezuelan election authority.
Read more: Polymarket’s Integrity Questioned Over Venezuelan Presidential Election Bet Outcome
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