Bitcoin (BTC), the first and largest cryptocurrency by market cap, is approaching a decisive juncture that might decide the fate of bulls. In a tweet, Ali, a crypto analyst, suggests that traders should keep an eye on the MVRV and 180-day SMA, as a "golden cross" pattern could indicate the continuation of an ongoing Bitcoin bull run.
Ali put it simply: "Watch for the MVRV and 180-day SMA to flash a golden cross to signal the continuation of the Bitcoin (BTC) bull run."
Watch for the MVRV and 180-day SMA to flash a golden cross to signal the continuation of the #Bitcoin $BTC bull run! pic.twitter.com/mjrfxrvAhj
— Ali (@ali_charts) March 21, 2025A golden cross happens when a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term moving average, signaling potential sustained upward momentum.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) was down 1.74% in the last 24 hours to $83,359 as Thursday's gain was met with profit-taking in the early Friday session. Market analysts point to the $80,000 level as the critical support for Bitcoin to maintain.
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With Bitcoin currently holding above this key support, the said golden cross of the MVRV and 180-day SMA could reinforce bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin traders cautious
While technical indicators suggest optimism, broader market conditions and macroeconomic factors might shape Bitcoin's price trajectory in the short term. The derivatives market, however, paints a different narrative, with traders exhibiting caution.
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Sun, 03/16/2025 - 15:04 Is Bitcoin's Bull Run Over? What Past Data Reveals
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According to Glassnode, futures open interest fell from $57 billion to $37 billion, a 35% drop since Bitcoin's all-time high, signaling reduced speculation and hedging activity. This fall reflects the contraction in on-chain liquidity, indicating broader risk-off behavior.
Bitcoin options markets also reflect a growing demand for downside protection. The Volatility Smile reveals that puts are trading at a higher premium than calls, indicating risk-averse positioning as investors hedge against additional downside.
The Options 25 Delta Skew confirms this trend with short-term puts becoming increasingly more expensive than equivalent calls, highlighting sustained demand for hedging. This risk-off sentiment suggests elevated uncertainty in BTC price action. The rising cost of downside protection in BTC options also reinforces this cautious market sentiment.
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