According to Tokenomist, there will be a big surge of token unlocks on the cryptocurrency market from March 17 to March 24, releasing assets valued at $486 million. The most notable of these is Solana, which is expected to unlock around $59 million. Token unlocks have the potential to increase selling pressure, but historical evidence indicates that Solana's market impact might not be noticeable.
There are several other assets planned for both one-time and linear unlocks in addition to Solana. Tokens with significant cliff unlocks include ZKJ ($31.83 million), QAI ($41.64 million) and FTN ($79.8 million). Prominent assets such as WLD ($31.82 million), TIA ($23. 80 million) and DOGE ($16.60 million) are available through linear unlocks. Even though these numbers may seem high, it is crucial to keep in mind that many of these unlocks are already included in market expectations.
SOL/USDT Chart by TradingView
Solana is already having trouble with the overall state of the market even with the $59 million unlock. SOL's price performance indicates that it is still clearly in a downward trend, overcoming resistance around the $140-$150 mark. A noteworthy breakout is still thwarted by the 200-day moving average, which remains a formidable obstacle. Furthermore, the asset continues to trade below significant resistance levels, indicating that bullish momentum is still weak.
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Big token unlocks do not always result in a drop in price, though they can cause short-term volatility. The market usually absorbs a large portion of the selling pressure over time, especially if demand stays constant. However, the ongoing bearish trend in Solana's case implies that even slight increases in supply could trigger additional downward movement.
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Solana has historically withstood token unlocks without suffering significant losses thanks to the large liquidity. But given that its current market structure is obviously weak, the unlock might confirm the current pessimism. SOL may continue to drop toward $120 or even lower if it is unable to recover the $150 level.
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