When Justin Trudeau stepped down, Mark Carney—an ex-central banker with zero prior elected political experience—vaulted into Canada’s top job. His ascent echoed Kamala Harris’s 2024 U.S. election entry, as neither secured their spot through direct public votes.
Instead, Carney clinched the role by rallying 66 Liberal caucus members to back his bid, bypassing the traditional ballot-box path. A prediction market bet on Polymarket, cheekily titled “Next Prime Minister of Canada after the election?” now shows Carney climbing the ranks in a nail-biting race.
Source: Polymarket bet on March 16, 2025.
On March 14—just two days ago—Carney leapfrogged Pierre Poilievre, leader of Canada’s Conservative Party, snagging a 52% chance to Poilievre’s 47%. But Carney’s brief victory fizzled fast: Poilievre bounced back ahead the very next day.
The high-stakes wager, with $12.87 million in play, wraps up on Oct. 20, 2025. Pre-Trudeau’s exit, Poilievre had already outpaced Canada’s 23rd prime minister. Regardless, a showdown between Carney and Poilievre feels inevitable, with both camps gearing up for a clash that could reshape Canadian politics.
Source: Polymarket bet on March 16, 2025.
As of 7 a.m. ET on Sunday, March 16, 2025, Poilievre holds a 54% edge over Carney’s 47% on Polymarket’s platform. Over on Kalshi, it’s a similar story: Poilievre leads Carney 52% to 48%.
Source: Kalshi bet on March 16, 2025.
Both prediction market platforms saw odds shift dramatically on March 14—the day Carney was sworn in at Rideau Hall. And in crypto circles? Poilievre’s the clear fan favorite. Pierre Poilievre is a bitcoin (BTC) proponent and has championed the digital currency in the past.
“Canada needs less financial control for politicians and bankers and more financial freedom for the people,” Poilievre explained in 2021. “That includes freedom to own and use crypto, tokens, smart contracts and decentralized finance,” he added at the time.
Carney, however, stands in stark contrast on digital finance. The freshly minted prime minister is a longtime World Economic Forum (WEF) insider, having served on its foundation board, and he’s thrown his weight behind central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) while openly critiquing bitcoin. Carney argues that CBDCs offer a safer, government-overseen alternative to decentralized cryptocurrencies.
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