Author: Yangz, Techub News
On March 7, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve and a U.S. digital asset stockpile, fulfilling his promise made before taking office at the Nashville Bitcoin Conference.
The initial funding for the Bitcoin strategic reserve comes from Bitcoin seized by the U.S. government over the years through criminal and civil litigation (David Sacks, head of AI and crypto affairs at the White House, stated that the U.S. government currently holds about 200,000 Bitcoins, though this figure is not fully audited; the executive order requires a comprehensive accounting of the federal government's digital asset holdings; Arkham data shows that the U.S. government currently holds about 198,109 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $17.38 billion), and it authorizes Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to explore acquiring more Bitcoins through a budget-neutral strategy without increasing the taxpayer burden; the U.S. digital asset stockpile includes digital assets other than Bitcoin seized through criminal or civil litigation, managed by the Treasury Department.
The executive order states, "Within 30 days of the issuance of this order, agencies shall review their authority to transfer any government-held Bitcoin to the Bitcoin strategic reserve and submit a report to the Secretary of the Treasury. Government Bitcoin deposited into the Bitcoin strategic reserve shall not be sold and shall be treated as a reserve asset of the United States, used for government purposes in accordance with applicable law." (The same applies to the digital asset stockpile.)
Bullish vs. Bearish Debate
As soon as the news broke, the market fluctuated. Bitcoin dropped from a high of 91,000 USDT to 84,000 USDT around 8 AM this morning, a nearly 7.6% fluctuation within an hour, before rebounding to around 88,000 USDT. Additionally, the market fell into a "bullish vs. bearish" debate. On one hand, some believe that the strategic reserve executive order fell short of expectations, leading traders to "sell the news"; on the other hand, some argue that, in the long run, this is simply a significant bullish signal.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that the U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve will significantly reduce the likelihood of the U.S. government "banning" Bitcoin in the future and greatly increase the chances of other countries following suit to establish Bitcoin reserves or accelerate their reserve processes. Furthermore, it will make it more difficult for various institutions, from national wealth management platforms to quasi-governmental organizations like the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to classify Bitcoin as a dangerous or unsuitable asset. Bitcoin Magazine CEO David Bailey commented that this decision, when recorded in history, "will prove to be the most important monetary policy decision since the Bretton Woods system." Additionally, Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko vividly compared this executive order to a scalpel, stating that "the government is not bailing out cryptocurrencies; it is merely further eliminating the regulatory uncertainty that has existed for the past four years. We need a stablecoin bill, guidelines for banks to access cryptocurrencies, and clear rules from the SEC and CFTC regarding token issuance and DeFi."
Moreover, some investors analyzed the significance of the U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve from different angles. Blue Fox Notes, from the perspective of the relationship between Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar, argued that building a national cryptocurrency reserve for the U.S. could be seen as a "both offensive and defensive" strategy. Blue Fox Notes stated, "Perhaps building a strategic cryptocurrency reserve is a defensive measure for the U.S. dollar's international monetary system. Once Bitcoin grows large enough, the human monetary system is likely to undergo a dramatic transformation. Therefore, for the U.S., if it cannot stop it, the sooner it acts, the easier it will be to gain an active position. Additionally, if the dollar declines in the future and is replaced by other countries' fiat currencies, then once the dollar loses its hegemonic status, cryptocurrency systems like Bitcoin can serve as an alternative to counter other countries' fiat currency systems." Primitive Ventures investment partner @YettaSing also retweeted, stating, "If Bitcoin is included in national reserves, it can only indicate that the sovereign currency system itself is showing cracks, and countries need to seek new credit anchors, which is a significant recognition of Bitcoin's monetary attributes."
In contrast to the above optimistic sentiments, many investors believe that this executive order does not meet expectations and is considered "bearish." @hexiecs stated that this executive order is not breaking news, "The Bitcoin strategic reserve has been in the works for a long time; part of the previous price increase was based on the expectation that the U.S. would use the strategic reserve to buy more Bitcoin. Now that this expectation has not materialized, isn't it clearly bearish?" Additionally, many investors expressed concerns about the U.S. government potentially seizing and confiscating crypto assets in the future. @realwuzhe remarked, "The U.S. has now established a Bitcoin reserve but is not planning to use taxpayer money to buy coins. Where will the new coins come from? It will inevitably continue to acquire them through law enforcement actions. Next, the U.S. has a strong incentive to enforce actions against overseas exchanges and large holders."
The debate between bullish and bearish sentiments may largely stem from the idea that "position determines mindset." Aside from the debate, there are also some details regarding the U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve that are worth noting. Galaxy Digital research director Alex Thorn pointed out that "seizure" and "confiscation" are different; "the maximum balance of Bitcoin available for the U.S. government to use as a strategic reserve is currently 88,000 coins, which is only 43% of the current government holdings. This is because 112,000 coins will be returned to Bitfinex." Of course, whether the U.S. government will ultimately return this Bitcoin remains uncertain. Furthermore, the Bitcoin strategic reserve signed by Trump (Strategic Bitcoin Reserve) is not the same as the Bitcoin reserve bill (Strategic Federal Reserve) promoted by Cythia Lummis at the federal level. Mint Ventures research partner Alex Xu noted that the former can be directly controlled by the government, while the latter requires congressional legislation; the former does not have a separate budget for purchasing Bitcoin (any increase requires congressional approval), while the latter would provide a separate budget for purchasing Bitcoin (with a goal of buying 1 million coins over 5 years). Therefore, "what David Sacks said about 'the government will not acquire other assets for reserve assets' does not mean that the public's impression of the Bitcoin strategic reserve suddenly becomes something that relies solely on confiscation without spending money to purchase Bitcoin."
Conclusion
In my view, the symbolic significance of the U.S. establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve far outweighs the immediate practical effects of the policy implementation. In the short term, it is normal for the market to react negatively to policy details that fall short of expectations. In the long run, this step remains an important signal of changes in the global financial landscape. Perhaps this is not a bullish signal that can immediately reverse the current market situation, but undoubtedly, it will be a decision recorded in history.
Meanwhile, market attention has turned to the White House crypto summit scheduled for the early morning of March 8. According to Fox reporter Eleanor Terrett revealed, confirmed attendees include Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, Gemini founders the Winklevoss brothers, Chainlink co-founder Sergey Nazarov, Multicoin managing partner Kyle Samani, Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang, Bitcoin Magazine CEO David Bailey, among others, and Trump will also deliver a speech.
At this new turning point in U.S. cryptocurrency policy, between policy implementation, market reactions, and the upcoming summit, whether Saturday's roundtable can bring more signals to the market or provide more substantial progress for the implementation of the Bitcoin strategic reserve will undoubtedly become a focus for the future development of the market and the industry.
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