The likelihood of a U.S. strategic crypto reserve gaining approval is below 50%, and tokens like XRP, Solana (SOL) and Cardano (ADA) would likely not be included, according to JPMorgan.
"We don't believe an approval of a U.S. strategic crypto reserve is the most likely scenario (assuming congressional approval would be needed). So the chance is less than 50% in our mind," Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, managing director of global market strategy at JPMorgan, told The Block.
"And if a US strategic crypto reserve is eventually approved, it would be difficult to include smaller tokens outside bitcoin and ethereum, as we argued in the report the inclusion of such tokens would raise more concerns about risk and volatility," Panigirtzoglou added.
JPMorgan's report, published Wednesday, noted that crypto markets initially rebounded sharply following President Donald Trump's proposal to include XRP, Solana (SOL) and Cardano (ADA) — alongside Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) — in a potential strategic crypto reserve. However, the announcement was quickly met with market skepticism regarding both congressional approval and the feasibility of including smaller tokens.
The report also pointed out that similar state-level proposals for bitcoin reserves have already failed in Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming, where lawmakers cited risk and volatility concerns.
Globally, central banks have also been hesitant. The Swiss National Bank and Poland's central bank have rejected bitcoin as a reserve asset, while Singapore has dismissed cryptocurrencies as incompatible with its long-term investment strategy.
"In addition, the European Central Bank's criticism of bitcoin reserves highlights the broader skepticism among policymakers about the adoption of cryptocurrencies as reserve assets," the report added.
Doubts over a U.S. strategic crypto reserve, along with record crypto ETF outflows and other market factors, are contributing to near-term downward pressure in crypto markets, according to JPMorgan analysts led by Panigirtzoglou.
Bitcoin fell nearly 20% in February, accompanied by $3.5 billion in outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs — the largest monthly outflow since their launch. The analysts noted that retail investors played a significant role in the decline, while futures data suggests institutional investors are also unwinding positions. Meanwhile, momentum traders have started building up short bets, adding to downside risk, according to the analysts.
Caution is also evident in capital markets. Strategy's (formerly MicroStrategy) latest $2 billion convertible debt issuance raises concerns about demand saturation, with increasingly investor-friendly terms signaling waning enthusiasm, the analysts noted. With Strategy's stock down 40% from its November peak and crypto miners raising large amounts of debt and equity, appetite for new fundraising could decline further, the analysts said.
Overall, with no immediate positive catalysts, crypto markets are likely to remain under pressure in the near term, according to the analysts.
Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.
© 2025 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
