Original｜Odaily Planet Daily

Author｜jk

Recently, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has accepted and reviewed applications for several cryptocurrency spot ETFs, among which the ETF progress of XRP, Litecoin (LTC), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Solana (SOL) is particularly noteworthy. This article summarizes the latest developments of various ETFs, the SEC's review process, and analysts' expectations.

XRP Spot ETF: Active Applications, SEC's Attitude Slightly Open

There are many applications for the XRP spot ETF, and several issuers are actively promoting the listing process. Odaily previously reported that the SEC officially accepted WisdomTree's application for the XRP ETF on February 19 and solicited public opinions. According to the SEC's approval process, a ruling must be made by October 17, 2025, at the latest. On February 15, the SEC confirmed receipt of the 19b-4 application document submitted by 21Shares, marking the formal review stage of its XRP ETF listing process.

Earlier on the timeline is Grayscale: on February 14, the SEC accepted the 19b-4 application submitted by Grayscale and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) to convert the Grayscale XRP Trust into an ETF. The latest ruling date for this conversion by the SEC is October 12, 2025. If the approval style for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs is followed, it is very likely that all will be approved or all will be rejected before this date.

Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas estimate that the probability of approval for the XRP spot ETF is 65%.

However, the final approval of XRP will be influenced by several risk factors.

One public strategy is that Ripple is actively promoting the development of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and has collaborated with countries like Montenegro on CBDC pilot projects. Odaily previously reported that Ripple has spent millions lobbying in Washington, trying to become the ultimate issuer and technical supporter of the U.S. CBDC.

However, former U.S. President Trump has explicitly opposed CBDCs, stating in a speech at a Bitcoin conference that there will be no CBDC as long as he is elected. He believes that CBDCs could have adverse effects on privacy rights. This difference in stance may lead to some adverse effects on the U.S. regulatory environment and XRP's final approval as an ETF.

At the same time, the SEC had previously filed a lawsuit against Ripple in 2020, accusing it of conducting an unregistered securities offering through the sale of XRP. Although in July 2023, the court ruled that XRP is not considered a security when sold on the secondary market, the SEC appealed this ruling in October 2024, causing XRP's price to drop by 11% at one point.

Litecoin (LTC) Spot ETF: Highest Probability of Approval

The Litecoin ETF is currently considered the most likely new cryptocurrency ETF to be approved, mainly due to Litecoin's long-term market stability, strong compliance, and technology architecture similar to Bitcoin. As one of the longest-running cryptocurrencies in the market, LTC has maintained a high level of security and decentralization since its launch in 2011, which, like Ethereum, reduces its risk under the SEC's regulatory framework. Additionally, Litecoin has not been classified as a security by the SEC like XRP or SOL, but is closer to the commodity attributes of Bitcoin (meaning Litecoin has not conducted token issuance for financing purposes as clearly as SOL), which lowers regulatory barriers.

On February 11, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas predicted that the probability of approval for the LTC ETF is as high as 90%. On February 14, he further stated on social media: "In baseball terms, most altcoin ETFs are still on first base, while only the Litecoin ETF is heading to third base."

According to the SEC's approval process, the formal acceptance date for the Litecoin ETF is January 29, so the latest ruling date is September 26, 2025.

Dogecoin (DOGE) Spot ETF: The First Meme ETF?

If the SEC ultimately approves the LTC ETF, the DOGE ETF may become the next beneficiary. On one hand, the DOGE network is highly decentralized, lacking a clear centralized entity or issuer, making it difficult for the SEC to classify it as a security, and more closely resembling commodity attributes, thus making it more suitable for ETF issuance. Secondly, DOGE has a large and active community support, maintaining high liquidity in the market for a long time, which makes it attractive to both institutional and retail investors, thus sustaining a certain demand for the ETF issuance.

Odaily previously reported that on February 14, the SEC confirmed receipt of the 19b-4 application submitted by Grayscale and NYSE, seeking approval for the DOGE ETF. The SEC must make a ruling by October 12, 2025, at the latest.

Bloomberg analysts predicted on February 11 that the probability of approval for the DOGE spot ETF is 75%. As market attention on DOGE increases, its ETF application is also accelerating, but it still needs to wait for the SEC's final decision.

Solana (SOL) Spot ETF: SEC Needs to Overturn Its Own Definition of Securities

The application for the Solana ETF has recently made new progress. Several institutions have begun applying for SOL spot ETFs this year; Odaily previously reported that on February 12, the SEC, under the new leadership team, accepted the applications for Solana spot ETFs submitted by 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary Capital, and VanEck. Previously, these institutions had withdrawn their applications due to regulatory issues. Meanwhile, Franklin Templeton has also submitted documents in Delaware to register the Franklin Solana Trust, which may become another main line for institutionalizing Solana assets.

However, Solana (SOL) also faces regulatory issues. During the tenure of former Chairman Gary Gensler, the SEC classified SOL as an unregistered security in several lawsuits (such as the Coinbase and Binance lawsuits in 2023), complicating its operation in the U.S. market. Analysts have stated that if the SEC ultimately chooses to approve the SOL ETF, it would be equivalent to publicly overturning its previous definition of cryptocurrencies as securities, which may have adverse effects on the SEC in court.

Therefore, Bloomberg analysts Seyffart and Balchunas predict the probability of approval for the SOL ETF is 70%. Based on the acceptance date of February 12, the SEC must make a ruling by October 9, 2025, at the latest.

Ethereum (ETH) ETF: May Introduce Staking Mechanism

Previously, when the SEC approved the Ethereum ETF, it may introduce a staking function to further increase investor returns.

Odaily previously reported that on February 15, the New York Stock Exchange Arca submitted an application to the SEC, requesting permission for Grayscale's Ethereum ETF to engage in staking to gain additional returns from a large ETH holding. Earlier this week, Cboe BZX also made a similar application, allowing the 21Shares Core Ethereum ETF to engage in staking.

According to Fox, the SEC's cryptocurrency working group has discussed with industry representatives whether staking can be introduced into the Ethereum ETF. Currently, the working group has held meetings with the Blockchain Association, Jito Labs, Multicoin Capital, Nasdaq, and Colin Lloyd, a partner in the commodities, futures, derivatives, and capital markets team at the law firm Sullivan & Cromwell.

How to Introduce Staking Mechanism into Ethereum ETF?

Since Ethereum transitioned to a PoS mechanism, the staking mechanism has been introduced into Ethereum; participants lock a certain amount of Ethereum in the network to support its operation, and in return, they receive additional Ethereum as rewards, usually through liquid staking platforms like Lido. By introducing the staking mechanism through the ETF, investors do not need to operate or manage the staking process themselves; the ETF issuer will handle it on their behalf, allowing investors to indirectly receive these staking rewards simply by holding ETF shares.

In other words, after investors purchase shares of the Ethereum ETF, the issuer of the Ethereum ETF (such as Grayscale) will automatically use the investors' funds to purchase Ethereum and stake it with a staking service provider, while distributing the staking rewards to investors. Compared to the two steps of "buying + staking" on-chain, purchasing the ETF only requires one step to continuously receive staking Ethereum rewards.

Additionally, Coinbase, as the custodian of Grayscale's Ethereum ETF, manages assets close to $1.3 billion. If the SEC approves these staking proposals, the Ethereum ETF market may see stronger capital inflows.

With the turnover of the SEC and major U.S. regulatory agencies, crypto-friendly individuals are taking office, and the ETFs for XRP, LTC, DOGE, and SOL are expected to make progress in 2025. Among them, LTC and DOGE have the highest probabilities of approval, at 90% and 75%, respectively, while SOL and XRP have probabilities of 70% and 65%. Furthermore, if the Ethereum ETF is allowed to stake, it will provide an additional source of returns for investors. According to the SEC's approval process, a final ruling on these ETFs must be made by mid-October 2025 at the latest. Odaily will closely monitor the SEC's further decisions and continue to report to you.

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