Bitcoin has faced five consecutive weekends of negative returns, but this trend is expected to shift this weekend, according to a Standard Chartered analyst.
A small positive move over this weekend could trigger exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows on Monday, pushing bitcoin toward $100,000 and then $102,500, the analyst Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research, said in a note shared with The Block on Friday.
Bitcoin is currently trading at about $97,650, according to The Block's Bitcoin price page.
The recent weekends (5 p.m. New York time Friday to the same time Sunday) have been particularly tough for bitcoin, weighed down by negative headlines. One key event was the DeepSeek news over the January 25-26 weekend, and the following weekend, February 1-2, bitcoin was hit by Canada and Mexico tariff headlines.
"But this is not 'normal', no matter how it may feel if you are holding a long position while taxiing kids to weekend sport in the rain," Kendrick said.
Weekend returns in BTC since start 2024
Source: Standard Chartered
This weekend, February 15-16, "will be different," according to Kendrick, because adverse events have already played out, and U.S. 10-year yields are below 4.5% this week, which is a positive signal for risk assets like bitcoin. Lower yields tend to ease pressure on speculative investments, making a rebound more likely.
With these factors expected to play out, Kendrick sees bitcoin regaining momentum, eyeing $100,000 as the first target, followed by $102,500 soon. Beyond that? "Then we see," Kendrick said. "BTC is a Giffen good after all," implying that higher prices may drive more demand.
Average returns in BTC per day of week since start 2024
Source: Standard Chartered
Kendrick has had bold long-term forecasts for bitcoin over the years. Earlier this month, he said bitcoin is expected to reach $500,000 by 2028, driven by its growing investor access and declining volatility.
Accordingly, Kendrick continues to expect bitcoin to reach the $200,000 level by year-end 2025, $300,000 by end-2026, $400,000 by end-2027, and $500,000 by end-2028, remaining there until end-2029.
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