Despite the U.S. elections being over, Polymarket reached a new milestone in January with 450,000 monthly active traders. This feat markets a 91% increase from October 2024's figure of 235,000 traders, signaling continued use of the app.
The platform maintained steady growth through the fourth quarter of 2024, with active traders increasing to 300,000 in November and 350,000 in December. This growth persists despite trading volume declining from November's peak of $2.6 billion to $1.23 billion in January.
The sustained increase in active traders following the U.S. election suggests potential for broader market interest beyond political events.
Open interest, which peaked at $500 million on Nov. 5, 2024, during election-related trading, has stabilized at around $100 million. While political markets remain popular, particularly those centered around the Trump presidency, the platform has diversified into sports betting markets, including the Super Bowl, NBA Championship, and Champions League.
The platform's growth comes amid regulatory developments in the prediction market space. A CFTC probe into Polymarket led to a Coinbase subpoena for customer information, highlighting ongoing regulatory scrutiny in the sector. These regulatory considerations may impact the platform's future development, particularly as speculation builds around a potential token launch.
With the uptick in active addresses, some market participants are likely betting on a token drop by Polymarket. Though no official confirmation has been provided, a changing U.S. regulatory regime may be enough for the platform to issue a token of its own.
This is an excerpt from The Block's Data & Insights newsletter. Dig into the numbers making up the industry's most thought-provoking trends.
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