Bitcoin is hovering around the $104,000 mark today, but could slip back to $100,000 in the face of negative U.S. inflation and jobs data, according to analysis from Japanese exchange BitBank.

“With Trump’s inauguration festivity behind, the crypto market is shifting focus to U.S. inflation data today and [the] jobs report next week,” explains BitBank market analyst Yuya Hasegawa.

While inflation did ease modestly in December, Hasegawa notes that it has been “sticky” in recent months and that the incoming “economic data may not favor Bitcoin.”

Something similar may apply to Ethereum, although the latter has outperformed Bitcoin today after the SEC’s approval of Bitwise’s BTC-ETH exchange-traded fund.

This news also comes as net inflow for existing Ethereum ETFs turns positive after several days of outflows, with funds adding ETH worth $67.8 million to their books, according to CoinGlass data.

Yet if today brings downbeat inflation figures, this would indicate that the Federal Reserve may stick to its current insistence on not lowering interest rates. As of Friday morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% last month after an unrevised 0.1% gain in November.

However, Digital Finance Group founder James Wo suggested that if and when the market sees an easing of inflation it could quickly boost expectations of future rate cuts.

“The anticipated rate cuts will increase money supply which converts to greater spending power, often driving the bull market up,” he told Decrypt.

Even with less than welcome inflation news today, the medium- and long-term picture for both Bitcoin and Ethereum remains positive, with Hasegawa underlining Jerome Powell’s recent U-turn on whether U.S. banks should work with crypto firms.

“Chair Powell’s comment was received as a hope that some level of further deregulation is on its way,” he said in a trading note shared with Decrypt, adding that Powell’s remarks form a piece of with last week’s removal of the restrictive SAB 121 accounting rule.

Digital Finance Group’s Wo is also optimistic that Powell’s remarks were more than just symbolic, and that they will lead to meaningful growth in the U.S. and broader cryptocurrency market.

“It provides great significance as it now provides greater guidance for banks to serve crypto, reducing the grey areas and ambiguities that many institutions have faced in the past,” he explains.

Other analysts point to additional positive factors for Bitcoin, with 10X Research writing yesterday that President Donald Trump’s tariff rhetoric is already driving up the price of gold, and could do the same for the market’s biggest cryptocurrency.

“393 metric tons of gold—valued at approximately $35 billion—have been moved into COMEX vaults in New York since the Trump election, pushing inventory levels up by 75%, the highest since 2022,” the firm’s analysts write.

And with the price of gold rising, this could increase the impetus for an additional reserve asset, which is already strong in view of recent moves from various states to establish BTC reserves.

Edited by Stacy Elliott.

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