Bitcoin could climb to as high as $130,000 over the next two months as institutional inflows increase, according to Standard Chartered head of forex and digital assets research Geoff Kendrick.
The Standard Chartered analyst highlighted in a note on Thursday that the market has entered a period of relative stability following the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, with the next policy decision scheduled for March 19. While macroeconomic risks still remain, Kendrick noted that the Fed’s stance reduces immediate uncertainty.
Kendrick pointed to the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision to rescind cryptocurrency accounting guidance SAB 121 as a major factor in driving institutional flows into bitcoin.
The policy reversal allows more traditional financial institutions to custody digital assets, removing a key regulatory barrier. "Institutional flows into bitcoin will continue to gather pace as a result," Kendrick said.
He expects bitcoin to test the previous cycle’s all-time high of $109,000 in the coming days or weeks. "Above that I expect bitcoin to increase to a $112,000 to $130,000 range for February and March," he said.
Recent market volatility has cleared out excessive leverage, according to Kendrick. Monday’s sell-off on news of DeepSeek's cost effective AI model led to the liquidation of $1.1 billion in long bitcoin positions across futures exchanges. "Market positioning is now a lot cleaner as a result," he said.
While macroeconomic factors continue to play a role, Kendrick suggested that AI-facilitated technological deflation could also be supportive of bitcoin. "If cheaper AI lowers inflation at the margin, then risk assets—like bitcoin, which have nothing to do with AI—should benefit," he noted. He clarified that digital assets directly linked to AI adoption could see even greater upside.
Kendrick also addressed the recent executive order from the Trump administration for the U.S. to become a leader in the crypto sector, tasking a working group with evaluating a national digital asset stockpile. While the announcement signals increased government attention on crypto, Kendrick noted that its vague wording left some uncertainty in the market.
"The disappointment for me was two-fold," Kendrick said. "1. 'Stockpile' rather than 'Reserve' sounds more like seized assets rather than purchased assets. 2. The executive order is now done and any further clarity/action will have to go through Congress which will take some time."
Despite the near-term uncertainty, Kendrick argued that the market is moving past the initial reaction. He said the "disappointment/confusion and therefore 'hope phase' is over," reducing bitcoin market risks. The next phase, he said, is to "buy the dip."
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