While bitcoin‘s broader trend remains bullish, consolidation near $102,000 reflects caution among traders, with critical resistance at $104,000–$105,000 and immediate support at $100,000–$101,000. The market’s next directional move hinges on whether buyers sustain momentum or bears force a retracement.

Key oscillators paint a neutral-to-mixed picture. The relative strength index (RSI) at 53.3 and Stochastic at 42.5 suggest equilibrium, while the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) signals a bearish factors at 1,466.6. Momentum remains bullish at 730.0.

Moving averages (MAs) reveal conflicting signals: shorter-term exponential moving average (EMA-10) and simple moving average (SMA-10) indicate sells at $102,407.2 and $103,337.0, respectively, while longer-term EMAs and SMAs (20–200) unanimously favor buys, reinforcing underlying bullish strength.

Bitcoin’s daily chart shows bitcoin recovering from a $89,164 low to test the $109,356 high, now consolidating between $102,000 and $104,000. Resistance at $109,000–$110,000 and support at $97,500–$98,000 frame the macro outlook. Sustained closes above $100,000–$102,000 could propel a retest of $107,000–$109,000.

BTC/USD 1D chart via Bitstamp on Jan. 29, 2025.

Conversely, a drop below $100,000 risks a retreat to $97,500–$98,000. Rising volume during recent highs underscores buyer conviction, but failure to breach $104,000 may invite profit-taking. The 4-hour chart reveals a recovery from $97,750, with resistance stiffening at $104,000–$105,000. Traders eye long entries near $100,000–$101,000 or short setups on rejections at $104,000–$105,000.

BTC/USD 4H chart via Bitstamp on Jan. 29, 2025.

The 1-hour chart shows choppy action around $102,000, with intraday scalping opportunities between $101,000–$101,500 (buy) and $103,500–$104,000 (short). Low hourly volume suggests caution, but a breakout above $104,000 could ignite momentum toward higher targets.

BTC/USD 1H chart via Bitstamp on Jan. 29, 2025.

Bull Verdict:

Bitcoin’s bullish case hinges on its ability to hold above the critical $100,000–$101,000 support zone, backed by long-term moving averages (exponential moving average [EMA] 20–200 and simple moving average [SMA] 20–200) signaling sustained upward momentum. A breakout above $104,000–$105,000 resistance could reignite buyer interest, targeting a retest of the $107,000–$109,000 range. Rising daily volume and bullish momentum at 730.0 reinforce the potential for upward continuation, provided the $99,000 stop-loss level remains unchallenged.

Bear Verdict:

The bearish scenario gains traction if bitcoin fails to breach the $104,000–$105,000 resistance, with short-term sell signals from the exponential moving average (EMA-10) at $102,407.2 and moving average convergence divergence (MACD) at 1,466.6 suggesting weakening momentum. A breakdown below $100,000 risks triggering a cascade toward $97,500–$98,000 support, exacerbated by low intraday volume and choppy price action. Traders should monitor for rejection at key levels and prepare for a deeper correction if sellers dominate near-term structure.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。