Bitcoin's trading activity exploded on Monday with volume surging 222% to $55.3 billion, as Maelstrom Fund CIO Arthur Hayes predicted a sharp correction that could drag the price as low as $70,000 before an eventual rise to $250,000 this year.
The alpha crypto is currently trading just a smidge above the $99,000 level, down 8.67% from its January 20 all-time high of roughly $108,000, data from CoinGecko shows.
Meanwhile, forced liquidations in the crypto derivatives sector spilled out some $850 million in the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for the majority of losses, Coinglass data shows.
Hayes warns of an impending "mini financial crisis" that could trigger the correction, linking market vulnerability to broader concerns about U.S. technological dominance. A potential "resumption of money printing," is also on the horizon, Hayes predicted.
His analysis points to Chinese AI firm Deepseek's recent breakthrough as a potential catalyst for global investors to reassess their overweight positions in U.S. tech and bonds.
Compounded difficulties
Profit-taking appears to be driving recent market movements, according to data from Bloomberg showing coordinated selling pressure around Bitcoin's $108,786 peak from January 20.
Concentrated sell pressure in the $104,000-$108,000 range was also noted, with Bitcoin's 8.2% weekly decline outpacing the broader crypto market's 5.50% drop. This divergence, combined with the spike in volume, indicates strategic profit-taking rather than fundamental weakness, Bloomberg's analysts claim.
The surge in trading volume to $55.3 billion suggests large-scale position adjustments, according to Bloomberg data. This comes as mining difficulty for the Bitcoin network recorded its first notable decrease since September 2024, according to recent numbers from Bitcoin mining pool CloverPool.
A shift in the network's dynamics could be expected, given the 2% difficulty drop that arrives after eight consecutive adjustments on the positive end.
Bitcoin mining difficulty adjustments tend to imply reduced computational power on the network side, adding to bearish signals on the short term, according to the Bloomberg analysis. The decrease to 108.11 trillion from its previous record of 110.45 trillion suggests miners may be adjusting their operations in response to recent price movements and profitability concerns.
Don’t take a screenshot just yet
More broadly, the crypto market shows signs of strain, with Bitcoin underperforming compared to other tickers in the digital asset space. While the global crypto market has declined 5.5% over the past week, Bitcoin has fallen 8.2%, suggesting increased selling pressure on the flagship asset.
Despite the near-term bearish predictions, Hayes maintains an optimistic longer-term outlook, suggesting that a resumption of monetary easing could drive Bitcoin to $250,000 by year-end.
Hayes' forecast comes as Bitcoin's market capitalization holds at $1.97 trillion, retaining its position as the leading digital asset by market capitalization.
Edited by Stacy Elliott.
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