Bitcoin’s current price trajectory closely mirrors patterns from previous market cycles, particularly the 2015-2018 cycle, according to data from Glassnode.
Glassnode’s analysis of historical bitcoin market data highlights significant growth during earlier cycles. The first cycle, which began with the 2009 genesis block and ended in 2011, saw bitcoin’s price grow by a staggering 80.51x. The subsequent 2011-2015 cycle achieved a 55.30-fold increase. However, more recent cycles, such as 2015-2018 and 2018-2022, saw more moderate growth rates of 2.80x and 3.31x, respectively, reflecting diminishing returns as bitcoin matures as an asset class.
In its latest report, Glassnode noted that the ongoing cycle’s growth closely mirrors the 2015-2018 period. At a comparable point in the 2015-2018 cycle, bitcoin had risen by 562%. Today, it has climbed approximately 630% from its 2022 cycle low of $15,000, suggesting potential for further growth. However, the scale of future increases remains uncertain.
A speculative projection from analysts at Bitget suggests that if bitcoin were to replicate the percentage gains of the 2015-2018 cycle, it could theoretically reach $1.7 million—a staggering 11,374% increase from its previous low. However, such projections highlight the challenges of applying historical patterns to future scenarios.
Bitget Wallet COO Alvin Kan emphasized the speculative nature of such predictions.
“Increasing institutional adoption is adding stability and legitimacy to the market, while regulatory clarity and advancements in blockchain technology are driving broader participation and usability,” Kan told The Block. “However, challenges like market volatility, balancing regulation with decentralization, and global economic conditions will heavily influence bitcoin’s trajectory.”
RedStone Oracles COO Marcin Mazmierczak offered a similar perspective, noting that while historical cycles provide valuable context, today’s market environment is fundamentally different.
“During the 2015-2018 cycle, bitcoin rose from approximately $200 to nearly $20,000, with daily trading volumes growing from $50 million to over $10 billion, but, today’s landscape is dramatically different, featuring institutional adoption through ETFs, a maturing DeFi ecosystem, and more sophisticated market infrastructure,” Mazmierczak told The Block.
Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.
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