Author: DavidNage, Venture Capital PM ARCA

Translated by: Shaofaye123, Foresight News

Nvidia's CEO stated, "The era of AI Agentics has arrived," and claimed that this emerging field contains "trillions of dollars in opportunities."

Before Jensen Huang made the above remarks, user interest in Web3 AI agents had already shifted towards these agents, which are gradually developing using the infrastructure and frameworks provided by Web3 and AI.

On January 2, various Web3 AI agents achieved significant market cap breakthroughs: Ai16zDAO reached a market cap of $2.6 billion through Eliza's framework, and Virtuals reached $5 billion through GAME. Four days later, ARC reached a market cap of $450 million through RIG, and Zerebro reached $783 million through Zerepy. On January 12, the total market cap of Solana agents among the 1,210 agents in the Cookie framework reached $7.5 billion, while Base reached $5.5 billion; the total market cap has exceeded $13 billion.

Considering the trillions of dollars in opportunities and the growth in this field so far, what level can the market cap of Web3 AI agents reach in the future? At the same time, the market share of traditional AI companies (such as OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, etc.) also needs to be taken into account to analyze the potential share and development timeline that Web3 AI agents might occupy.

Analysis of AI Technology Adoption

It took 35 years for 1 billion people to have email addresses since the invention of email. In contrast, ChatGPT has reached nearly 200 million monthly active users (MAU) since its launch in November 2022. The following technology adoption curve can be referenced:

Currently, there are approximately 4.8 billion independent email addresses globally, and ChatGPT users account for about 4.2%, even though its growth was initially slowed by language limitations, computational resources, and other factors.

Based on the current monthly new user growth of about 14 million, if the growth accelerates to double (thanks to broader access, competitive drives, etc.), reaching 28.6 million new users per month, the total new users in the next 24 months will be:

28.6 million × 24 months ≈ 686 million

Adding the existing 200 million users, by 2026, the total number of ChatGPT users is expected to approach 886 million.

Assuming by 2026:

Paid users: 886 million × 0.10 (conversion rate) = 88.6 million paid users

Monthly revenue: 88.6 million × 20 = $1.77 billion / month

Annual revenue: $1.77 billion × 12 = $21.24 billion / year

If we use a 5x price-to-sales ratio (P/S Ratio) to calculate market cap, and reference a premium multiple, this would make ChatGPT's market cap reach approximately $100 billion (the latest round of private market valuation is $157 billion). Jensen Huang stated that AI agents could represent a trillion-dollar opportunity. Assuming ChatGPT captures 15% of this total market size, that still leaves $850 billion in market space waiting to be captured.

So the question is: How much market share can Web3 AI agents capture from this?

Web3 Market Share Analysis

We can apply the "Bitcoin to Gold ratio" to the AI agent market. Currently, Bitcoin's market cap accounts for about 10.9% of the total gold market cap. If Web3 AI agents can capture a market share similar to the Bitcoin/Gold ratio:

$850 billion × 10.9% = $92.65 billion (the potential size of the Web3 AI agent market).

However, several factors may indicate that the market share of Web3 AI agents could be higher:

Advantages of Web3 Agents:

• Decentralized infrastructure: The infrastructure of decentralized networks already exists and can be directly utilized.
• Token incentive mechanisms: Promote user and developer participation through tokenized reward mechanisms.
• Smart contract automation: Achieve efficient automated operations through smart contracts.
• Built-in payment functions: Payment functions in the Web3 ecosystem are seamlessly integrated and can be used directly.
• Data sovereignty and ownership: Users can truly own and control their data.

Unique Capabilities of Web3 Agents:

• Tokenized ownership of agents: Allows users to hold ownership of agents through tokens.
• DAO (Decentralized Autonomous Organization) integration: Seamlessly integrates with DAOs for community-driven management and decision-making.
• Composability with DeFi: Web3 agents can seamlessly connect with decentralized finance applications, expanding their functionality and value.

Given these unique advantages of Web3 AI agents, their market share may be higher than Bitcoin's ratio to gold. If we assume the following three scenarios:

• Low expectation: 10.9% (Bitcoin/Gold ratio) = $92.65 billion
• Medium expectation: 20% = $170 billion
• High expectation: 30% = $255 billion

The potential of the Web3 agent market may far exceed this, especially as these advantages are further explored and fully utilized.

Conclusion

The rise of Web3 AI agents represents a convergence of two transformative technologies.

ChatGPT reached 200 million monthly active users in just two years, and this rapid growth curve provides an important benchmark for the accelerated adoption of AI technology. Using the 10.9% from the "Bitcoin to Gold market cap ratio" as a conservative baseline and applying it to the anticipated $850 billion AI agent market opportunity (excluding ChatGPT's share), the market size for Web3 AI agents could reach $92.65 billion. Given the inherent advantages of Web3, such as decentralized infrastructure, token-based incentive mechanisms, smart contract automation, and built-in payment systems, their market share could be even higher. A 20% market share is a reasonable expectation, supporting a market size of $170 billion.

Additionally, the unique capabilities of Web3 agents in tokenized ownership, DAO integration, and composability with DeFi enable them to fully leverage the rapid adoption trajectory of AI technology and the existing infrastructure of blockchain technology. Therefore, this field has the potential to become one of the biggest beneficiaries at the intersection of AI and blockchain technology.

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