Real estate has been recharged to such an extent that it has become something that affects everything with just a small change.

This issue cannot just be viewed through the lens of current pain; we need to look back. The last wave of bubbles was initiated by the housing reform in 2016, with targeted monetary easing of nearly 4 trillion.

Going further back, we have the 4 trillion stimulus in 2009 to respond to the American financial crisis. Logically, this was a crisis in the U.S., and China was merely a collateral damage. However, in practice, both China and the U.S. engaged in monetary easing to navigate through this crisis… At that time, China and the U.S. were still in a honeymoon period.

The context revolves around these two rounds of monetary easing. Let's take a typical city, Hefei, as an example:

2008: 3748 yuan/square meter

2009: 6051 yuan

2014: 7825 yuan

2016: 15000 yuan

2021: 16376 yuan

2023: 13107 yuan

We can see that the housing prices in Hefei were quite cheap in 2008, and they started to rise in 2009, but they were still somewhat affordable. After the monetary easing in 2016, prices jumped directly to 15,000, pushing Hefei's per capita income into a stage of needing to catch up…

So now it is a process of repaying debts. In 2023, Hefei's per capita disposable income is 52,594 yuan, about 4,400 yuan/month. It is estimated that rent can barely be afforded up to 2,000 yuan. The rent-to-price ratio, calculated at a minimum of 3.6% mortgage interest rate, means a house priced at 660,000 yuan is reasonable, which corresponds to a housing price of about 8,000 yuan/square meter, essentially returning to the 2014 level.

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