a16z releases a list of future technology innovations, covering areas such as AI wallets, decentralized chatbots, digital identity, stablecoin payments, and on-chain government bonds.

Author: a16z

Translation: Blockchain in Plain Language

a16z has published a comprehensive list of "major innovations" across multiple fields, looking ahead to the directions that technology innovators may tackle in the coming year. These fields include artificial intelligence, dynamic developments in the U.S., biotechnology and health, cryptocurrency, enterprise services, fintech, gaming, infrastructure, and more. Below is a brief summary of some of the topics that the a16z crypto team is most interested in for the future.

Additionally, for insights on policies, regulations, and more for 2025, please refer to this article from November 2024.

1. AI Needs Dedicated Wallets to Truly Act Independently

As artificial intelligence transitions from "non-player characters" (NPCs) to "protagonists," they will gradually become agents capable of autonomous action. However, until recently, AI has not been able to truly act independently. Even now, they still cannot participate in market activities in a fully independent manner (i.e., without human control), such as exchanging value, expressing preferences, or coordinating resources.

As we have seen, AI agents (like @truth_terminal) can utilize cryptocurrency for transactions, opening up endless possibilities for creative content. But the potential of AI agents goes far beyond this—they can not only better realize human intentions but also become truly independent network participants.

When AI agents begin to possess their own crypto wallets, signing keys, and crypto assets, we will see many new application scenarios emerge. For example, AI may operate or verify nodes in DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks), helping to achieve distributed energy management. Other possible scenarios include AI becoming high-value players in games, or even the emergence of the first blockchain owned and operated by AI in the future.

—Carra Wu

Twitter: @carrawu | Farcaster: @carra

2. Decentralized Autonomous Chatbots Emerge

Building on the foundation of AI having wallets, a new type of AI chatbot running on TEE (Trusted Execution Environment) has emerged. TEE provides an isolated environment for executing applications, enabling a more secure design for distributed systems. Here, the purpose of TEE is to prove that the chatbot is autonomous and not controlled by humans.

Further extending this, the next major innovation is what we call "Decentralized Autonomous Chatbots" (DACs, distinct from decentralized autonomous organizations). These chatbots can build a fan base by publishing engaging content (whether entertaining or informative). They can accumulate attention on decentralized social media, generate revenue from audiences in various ways, and manage their assets using cryptocurrency.

The relevant keys will be managed by the TEE running the chatbot software, meaning that no one can access these keys except for the software itself.

As risks increase, some regulatory measures may need to be introduced. But the core point is decentralization: the chatbot will operate on a permissionless set of nodes and coordinate through consensus protocols. This could even make it the first truly autonomous entity with a market value of a billion dollars.

—Dan Boneh, Karma, Daejun Park, and Daren Matsuoka

Twitter: @danboneh

Twitter: @0xkarmacoma | Farcaster: @karma

Twitter: @daejunpark

Twitter: @darenmatsuoka | Farcaster: @darenmatsuoka

3. As More People Use AI, We Need Unique "Identity Proof"

In a world filled with online impersonation, scams, multiple identities, deepfakes, and other realistic yet deceptive AI-generated content, we need "identity proof" to confirm that we are interacting with real people. However, the new issue here is not the false content itself, but rather that the cost of producing such content has significantly decreased. AI has greatly reduced the marginal cost of creating seemingly "real" content, further blurring the line between true and false.

Therefore, there is a greater need than ever for a digital method to privately associate content with individuals. "Identity proof" is an important foundation for establishing digital identity, but here it can also be used to increase the marginal cost of attacking an individual or undermining network integrity: for humans, obtaining a unique ID is free, while for AI, it is costly and fraught with difficulties.

This is why the "uniqueness" that protects privacy becomes the next major breakthrough in building a trustworthy network. It not only addresses the identity proof issue but fundamentally changes the cost structure for malicious actors to launch attacks. Thus, the "uniqueness property"—also known as Sybil resistance—is an indispensable core feature of any identity proof system.

—Eddy Lazzarin

Twitter: @eddylazzarin | Farcaster: @eddy

4. From Prediction Markets to Better Information Aggregation Mechanisms

Prediction markets became a focal point during the 2024 U.S. elections, but as an economist studying market design, I do not believe that prediction markets themselves will bring about transformation in 2025. Instead, prediction markets pave the way for more distributed, technology-based information aggregation mechanisms—these mechanisms can be applied across a wide range of fields, from community governance and sensor networks to finance.

The past year has proven this concept, but it is important to note that prediction markets themselves are not always an ideal way to aggregate information: even for global "macro" events, they may be less reliable; for more "micro" issues, the prediction pools may be too small to generate meaningful signals. However, researchers and technologists have accumulated decades of design frameworks to incentivize people to share what they know authentically in different information contexts (such as data pricing and purchasing mechanisms, and "Bayesian truth serum" for obtaining subjective assessments)—many of which have already been applied in crypto projects.

Blockchain has always been a natural vehicle for implementing these mechanisms—not only because they are decentralized but also because they facilitate open, auditable incentive mechanisms. More importantly, blockchain will also publicize output results, allowing everyone to interpret these results in real-time.

—Scott Duke Kominers

Farcaster: @skominers | Twitter

5. More Businesses Will Accept Stablecoin Payments

Stablecoins have found their market fit over the past year—this is not surprising, as they are the cheapest way to send dollars and enable fast global payments. Stablecoins also provide entrepreneurs with a more convenient platform to build new payment products: no censorship, minimum balance requirements, or proprietary SDKs. However, large enterprises have yet to realize that by switching to these payment channels, they can significantly save costs and gain new profit margins.

While we have seen some businesses start to pay attention to stablecoins (and early adoption in peer-to-peer payments), I expect a larger wave of experimentation in 2025. Small and medium-sized enterprises with strong brands, fixed user bases, and high payment costs—such as restaurants, coffee shops, and convenience stores—will be the first to transition from credit card payments to stablecoins. Since face-to-face transactions do not enjoy credit card fraud protection, their losses in transaction fees are particularly noticeable (30 cents per cup of coffee leads to significant profit losses!).

We can also expect that large enterprises will begin to accept stablecoin payments. If stablecoins indeed accelerate the evolution of the banking industry, then businesses will attempt to eliminate the intermediary role of payment service providers—directly bringing 2% cost savings into their profit margins. Companies will also start seeking new solutions to address issues such as fraud protection and identity verification that current credit card companies solve.

—Sam Broner

Twitter: @sambroner | Farcaster: @sambroner

6. Countries Explore On-Chain Government Bonds

On-chain government bonds will create a government-backed, interest-bearing digital asset—this approach avoids the regulatory concerns that may arise from Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). These products can open up new sources of demand for collateral use in decentralized finance (DeFi) borrowing and derivatives protocols, further enhancing the integrity and robustness of these ecosystems.

Therefore, as governments around the world that support innovation further explore the benefits and efficiencies of public, permissionless, and immutable blockchains this year, some countries may experiment with issuing on-chain government bonds. For example, the UK is exploring digital securities through its Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) sandbox program; at the same time, the UK Treasury has also expressed interest in issuing digital gifts.

In the U.S.—considering that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) plans to require the clearing of government bonds through traditional, cumbersome, and costly infrastructure next year—discussions about how blockchain can improve the transparency, efficiency, and participation of bond trading are expected to increase.

—Brian Quintenz

Twitter: @brianquintenz | Farcaster: @brianq

7. The U.S. Blockchain Network Will Widely Adopt "DUNA," a New Industry Standard

In 2024, Wyoming passed a new law recognizing Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs) as legal entities. DUNA (Decentralized Unincorporated Nonprofit Association) is a structure designed specifically for achieving decentralized governance of blockchain networks, and it is the only viable structure for domestic projects in the U.S. By incorporating DUNA into the decentralized legal entity structure, blockchain projects and other decentralized communities can provide legal recognition for their DAOs—this not only facilitates more economic activity but also protects token holders from liability and helps manage tax and compliance requirements.

DAOs—communities that govern open blockchain network affairs—are essential tools to ensure that networks remain open, non-discriminatory, and do not extract value unfairly. DUNA can unlock the potential of DAOs, and several projects are already working to implement this structure. As the U.S. prepares to promote and accelerate the development of its crypto ecosystem in 2025, I expect DUNA to become the standard for U.S. projects. We also anticipate that other states will adopt similar structures (Wyoming was the first to take this step; they were also the first to adopt the now-popular LLC) … especially as other decentralized applications beyond crypto (such as physical infrastructure/energy grids) thrive.

—Miles Jennings

Twitter: @milesjennings | Farcaster: @milesjennings

8. Decentralized Voting Systems Move Toward Reality

As dissatisfaction with existing governance and voting systems grows, now is the perfect time to experiment with new, technology-driven governance models—not only online but even in the real world. I have previously written about how DAOs (Decentralized Autonomous Organizations) and other decentralized communities can help us study political systems, behaviors, and rapidly evolving governance experiments on a large scale. But what if we could apply these research findings to real-world governance through blockchain technology?

We could ultimately use blockchain to enable secure, private election voting, starting with some low-risk pilot projects to alleviate concerns about cybersecurity and auditing. More importantly, blockchain will give us the opportunity to experiment with "liquid democracy"—a way for people to vote directly on issues or delegate their voting rights to others—and this can be tested at the local level. The concept of liquid democracy was first proposed by Lewis Carroll, the author of "Alice in Wonderland," who was also a researcher of voting systems; however, this concept has been impractical in practice due to scalability issues. Today, with advancements in computing technology, network connectivity, and blockchain, new forms of representative democracy are becoming feasible. Many crypto projects have begun to apply this idea and have collected substantial data on how these systems can operate effectively—our recent research findings are an example—local governments and communities can fully leverage this data.

—Andrew Hall

Twitter: @ahall_research | Farcaster

9. Builders Will Reuse Infrastructure More, Rather Than Reinventing the Wheel

Over the past year, teams have continued to "reinvent the wheel" within the blockchain technology stack—launching various customized validator sets, consensus protocol implementations, execution engines, programming languages, and RPC APIs. While there are sometimes improvements in specific functionalities, they often lack broader or foundational capabilities. For example, a dedicated programming language for SNARKs: while an ideal implementation might allow developers to generate more efficient SNARKs, in practice, it may fall short in areas like compiler optimization, development tools, online learning resources, and AI programming support compared to general-purpose programming languages (at least for now), and may even lead to worse-performing SNARKs.

Therefore, I expect that in 2025, more teams will leverage contributions from others and reuse existing blockchain infrastructure components—from consensus protocols and existing staking capital to proof systems. This approach will not only help builders save a significant amount of time and effort but also allow them to focus more on the differentiated value of their products or services.

The infrastructure is finally ready to be used to build mainstream Web3 products and services. Just like in other industries, these products will be built by teams that can successfully navigate complex supply chains, rather than those who scoff at "non-self-invented things."

—Joachim Neu

@jneu_net on Twitter

10. Crypto Companies Will Start from End-User Experience, Not Letting Infrastructure Determine User Experience

While the technical infrastructure of blockchain is both interesting and diverse, many crypto companies do not simply choose their own infrastructure—in some ways, the infrastructure is making choices for them and their users when it comes to determining user experience. This is because specific technical choices at the infrastructure level are directly linked to the end-user experience of blockchain products or services.

But I believe the industry will overcome the implicit mental barrier here: that technology should dictate the final user experience, rather than the other way around. In 2025, more crypto product designers will start from the end-user experience they wish to achieve and then choose the appropriate infrastructure based on that need. Crypto startups will no longer need to overly focus on infrastructure choices before finding product-market fit—they can concentrate on truly finding product-market fit.

We no longer need to get bogged down in specific EIPs, wallet providers, intent architectures, etc., but can abstract these choices into a comprehensive, full-stack, plug-and-play manner. The industry is ready: ample programmable block space, increasingly mature development tools, and chain abstraction are beginning to enable more people to participate in crypto design. Most technical end-users do not care what language a product is written in; they only care about how to use it every day. The same will begin to hold true in the crypto space.

—Mason Hall

@0xMasonH on Twitter | @mason on Farcaster

11. "Hiding the Wires" Will Facilitate the Birth of Killer Web3 Applications

The technical advantages of blockchain are its uniqueness, but these advantages have also somewhat hindered its mainstream adoption. For creators and fans, blockchain unlocks possibilities for connection, ownership, and monetization… However, the jargon within the industry (such as "NFTs," "zkRollups," etc.) and complex designs have created barriers for those who stand to benefit most from these technologies. I have felt this deeply in discussions with executives from the media, music, and fashion industries about Web3.

Many consumer technologies have a path to mainstream adoption that goes like this: starting with the technology; some iconic companies or designers abstracting the complexity; this shift helps unlock certain breakthrough applications. Think of the origins of email—SMTP protocol was hidden behind the "send" button; or credit cards, where today most users do not care about how payment channels operate. Similarly, Spotify did not revolutionize music by showcasing file formats but by bringing song playlists to our fingertips. As Nassim Taleb said, "Over-engineering leads to fragility; simplicity scales better."

Therefore, I believe our industry will adopt this concept in 2025: "hiding the wires." The best decentralized applications have already focused on more intuitive interface designs, making operations as simple as a gentle tap on the screen or a swipe. In 2025, we will see more companies adopting clean designs and clearly communicating information; successful products do not need explanations; they simply need to solve problems.

—Chris Lyons

@chrislyons on Twitter | on Farcaster

12. The Crypto Industry Finally Welcomes Its Own App Store and Discovery Platform

When crypto applications are blocked by centralized platforms like the Apple App Store or Google Play, it limits their potential for user acquisition. But now, we see new app stores and marketplaces providing opportunities for distribution and discovery without any restrictions. For example, Worldcoin's World App marketplace not only stores verification proofs but also allows access to "mini-apps," attracting hundreds of thousands of users in just a few days. Another example is a fee-free dApp store for Solana phone users. These two examples also demonstrate that hardware, not just software—phones, spherical devices—could be a key advantage for crypto app stores, just as Apple devices were a key advantage for early application ecosystems.

Meanwhile, other stores are offering thousands of decentralized applications and Web3 development tools within popular blockchain ecosystems (such as Alchemy), as well as blockchain acting as publishers and distributors for games (such as Ronin). However, not everything is going smoothly: if a product already has distribution channels on other platforms—like messaging apps—it can be challenging to migrate it to the blockchain (with the exception of Telegram/TON network). The same goes for applications with significant Web2 distribution channels. But we may see more of these migrations happening in 2025.

—Maggie Hsu

@meigga on Twitter | @maggiehsu on Farcaster

Cryptocurrency Holders Transition to Cryptocurrency Users

In 2024, cryptocurrency made significant progress as a political movement, with key policymakers and political figures expressing positive views on it. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency as a financial movement continues to develop (for example, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs have expanded access for investors). By 2025, cryptocurrency should further evolve into a computational movement. But where will the next wave of users come from?

I believe now is the time to reactivate the currently "passive" holders of cryptocurrency and convert them into more active users, as only 5-10% of cryptocurrency holders are actively using it. We can bring the 617 million people who already own cryptocurrency into the blockchain world—especially as blockchain infrastructure continues to improve and transaction costs decrease. This means new applications will begin to serve both existing and new users. At the same time, the early applications we have already seen—covering stablecoins, decentralized finance (DeFi), NFTs, gaming, social, decentralized physical infrastructure (DePIN), decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), and prediction markets—are also becoming more accessible to mainstream users, as communities place greater emphasis on user experience and other improvements.

—Daren Matsuoka

@darenmatsuoka on Twitter | on Farcaster

13. Various Industries May Begin Tokenizing "Unconventional" Assets

As the infrastructure of the crypto industry continues to mature and other emerging technologies develop, the practice of tokenizing assets will permeate various industries. This will enable assets that were previously inaccessible due to high costs or not being considered valuable to not only achieve liquidity but, more importantly, to participate in the global economy. Artificial intelligence engines can also process this information as unique datasets.

Just as hydraulic fracturing technology unlocked oil reserves once thought to be unreachable, the tokenization of unconventional assets may redefine income generation in the digital age. Seemingly science-fiction scenarios are becoming more plausible: for example, individuals could tokenize their biometric data; then lease this information to companies through smart contracts. We have already seen some early examples, such as decentralized science (DeSci) companies leveraging blockchain technology to bring more ownership, transparency, and consent mechanisms to medical data collection. We have yet to witness how such a future will unfold, but these developments will allow people to utilize previously undeveloped assets in a decentralized manner—rather than relying on governments and centralized intermediaries to provide these resources for them.

—Aaron Schneider

@aaronschnider on Twitter

Note: The views expressed here are solely those of the author and do not represent the views of a16z or its affiliates. The information in this article comes from third-party sources, and a16z has not independently verified this information and does not guarantee its accuracy. The content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, investment, or tax advice. Investment decisions should be made in consultation with a professional advisor, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

Article link: https://www.hellobtc.com/kp/du/01/5617.html

Source: https://a16zcrypto.com/posts/article/big-ideas-crypto-2025/

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