China could be ramping up its gold purchases using covert methods. Jan Nieuwenhuijs, a metals analyst focused on the Chinese market, believes that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has scooped up over 100 tonnes of gold during the last quarter of 2024 via London imports.

Nieuwenhuijs explains that the difference between the gold imported from London and other markets into the country and the purchases made by the private sector has been very significant, a signal that something is happening behind the scenes. For example, in September price premiums turned negative on the Shanghai Gold Exchange but imports reached 95 tonnes. Therefore, Nieuwenhuijs concluded that 60 tonnes (in 400-ounce bars) exported in September from London to China went to the vaults of the PBOC.

This also happened in October, when gold was at a discount in national markets but imports registered 95 tonnes. Nieuwenhuijs estimates that all of the gold imported via London — 55 tonnes according to Her Majesty’s Revenue & Customs (HMRC), Britain’s tax, payments, and customs authority — was absorbed by the bank.

Read more: Report Reveals China Continues to Secretly Grow Its Gold Stash, Misleading Market to Cause Price Cool-Off

In November, while the bank reported having only purchased 5 tonnes of gold, gross imports accounted for 122 tonnes. “No doubt the PBOC struck big in the London Bullion Market once again,” he stressed.

The analyst believes these purchases are related to the Chinese top brass considering gold will acquire an incremental relevance in the international financial system. Nieuwenhuijs explains this is part of a global shift from “dollar recycling,” when countries invested their surpluses in dollars, to a “gold recycling” era with gold substituting the dollar for this purpose.

The growing U.S. global debt is also part of this restructuring process, as nations holding the dollar fear that inflation could be used to restructure the debt that recently surpassed $36 trillion.

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