Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Nan Zhi (@AssassinMalvo)_

Since Binance launched Binance Alpha on December 18, it has listed a total of 38 tokens. In the first phase, most of the tokens listed were of extremely high market capitalization, resulting in relatively insignificant price increases; while in the fifth phase, WHALES saw a significant increase due to its very small market capitalization. So how should one invest?

In this article, we will answer several questions through detailed data:

• What is the short-term listing effect?

• What is the medium to long-term listing effect?

• Do different chains exhibit different price fluctuation patterns?

• Is there a correlation between the listing effect and market capitalization?

Data Overview

The 5-minute price fluctuations, 1-hour price fluctuations, and cumulative price fluctuations since listing for the six phases of Binance Alpha and 38 tokens are shown in the table below. All price data comes from TradingView's 5-minute candlestick chart; market capitalization is based on circulating market capitalization from CoinGecko.

To objectively compare whether the cumulative price fluctuations outperform the overall market, this article selects three tokens as reference objects: arc on Solana, VIRTUAL on Base, and BTC. (Note: PSTAKE was omitted here as no sufficiently liquid trading pairs could be found, resulting in significant price volatility.)

What is the short-term listing effect?

From the table above, we can see that the average 5-minute price fluctuations from the first to the sixth phase are all positive, at 14%, 23%, 18%, 5%, 22%, and 0%, respectively. This indicates that Binance Alpha does exhibit a short-term listing effect, but it is certainly much less pronounced compared to Binance's own platform. For reference, the average 5-minute listing effect for Moonshot is about 30%, which is relatively close. (Recommended reading: “CHILLGUY 12x in one day, but most people can't benefit from the wealth created by Moonshot”, “Is Moonshot really effective in listing as a Meme trendsetter?”)

However, further analysis shows that the short-term price increases are mainly contributed by one or two standout tokens, while the majority of tokens have negligible price increases.

The following chart shows the price fluctuation bars for three time periods, clearly indicating that the red portion (5-minute price increase) has a few very prominent bars, but most price increases are quite small.

What is the medium to long-term listing effect?

Using the 1-hour closing price as a reference, the table shows that most tokens maintain positive price increases (green bars above the zero axis) one hour after listing.

Considering users who may not buy quickly enough, comparing the 1-hour closing price to the 5-minute closing price (where green bars below red bars indicate relative declines), we find the relative price fluctuations for the six phases to be -10%, -7%, 3%, -3%, 4%, and 4%. This means that if you buy in too late, you may get stuck in the mid-term.

How does the long-term performance look? From the blue bars in the chart, it is clear that after listing on Binance Alpha, these tokens have significantly better long-term price increases compared to short-term increases. For most users, it is more suitable to first research which projects are of high quality after listing, then wait for a pullback to buy in and anticipate long-term price increases.

Are the long-term price increases driven by the overall upward trend in the crypto market, or is there indeed an influence from the platform? By comparing arc, VIRTUAL, and BTC, we can see that during the first three batches of listings, the overall market was in a downward trend, yet the listed tokens still had positive price increases. Therefore, overall, listing on Binance Alpha is indeed a long-term benefit for tokens.

Do different chains exhibit different price fluctuation patterns?

Organizing by chain, the data tables and bar charts are shown below. The differences among chains are very obvious; Ethereum leads significantly in 5-minute price fluctuations, while Base is the weakest; in terms of long-term price increases, Solana is far ahead, with the other three chains showing little difference.

The data for Solana chain tokens is as follows. Overall, the differences in 5-minute and 1-hour price fluctuations are not significant, while the long-term price increases are far ahead, making it possibly the most suitable chain to participate in Binance Alpha.

The data for Ethereum is shown below. The differences in 5-minute and 1-hour price fluctuations are relatively larger compared to Solana, with the average 5-minute price increase at 24% and the 1-hour average at 17%, but the cumulative price increase since listing is only 24%. Ethereum requires extremely high gas costs to secure a favorable position in the short term, but the overall price increase is not significant, making it currently the least valuable to participate in.

The data for BNB Chain is shown in the figure below, where the differences in 5-minute and 1-hour price fluctuations further expand, but it can be seen that the tokens with the best long-term price increases (purple bars) are those with relatively small 1-hour price increases.

The data for Base is shown below, where the main contributors to price increases are LUNA and ODOS, but the sample size is small, making it difficult to identify underlying patterns.

Is there a correlation between the listing effect and market capitalization?

Arranged in ascending order of market capitalization, the data for each time period is shown in the figure below. It is clear that the tokens with the most significant short-term price increases are all small-cap tokens, but they also experience the most significant declines after one hour. Long-term price increases do not show a clear correlation with market capitalization.

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