Original source: @Mippo
Compilation: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Translator: Wenser (@wenser2010)
Editor's note: As we approach the end of 2024, many crypto investment institutions, including a16z and VanEck, have released a series of outlooks for the cryptocurrency industry in 2025. Mippo, a crypto researcher at Blockworks, recently published a lengthy tweet titled "27 Crypto Speculations for 2025," which was also retweeted by Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan who commented, "Well said." The content of the tweet covers various aspects such as future U.S. crypto policy, DeFi, Ethereum, Solana, and stablecoins. Odaily Planet Daily will compile and briefly comment on this article for readers' reference.
27 Crypto Speculations for 2025
Note: The original author's term "Prediction" is translated as "Speculation" for the sake of rigor, as predictions require sufficient reasoning, but these 27 points resemble the author's subjective speculations and may not necessarily have rigorous logical support, so they are for reference only.
1. The U.S. will rise again as a global crypto hub
Many cryptocurrency entrepreneurs will return to the U.S. and open offices in New York, with the scale of U.S. crypto conferences surpassing that of Asia.
2. More than 10 DeFi protocols will activate fee switches
Multiple DeFi protocols will activate fee switches for the first time, with Uniswap among them.
3. DeFi protocols will adopt customer asset re-staking business models
An increasing number of DeFi protocols will use customer assets for re-staking as a revenue source, including cross-chain bridges and liquid staking tokens (LST).
4. Debates on Ethereum's core direction will soon settle
Efforts focused on L1 network expansion will gradually reduce to a minimum (e.g., raising the Gas target to 50M gwei), but the Rollup-centric roadmap will be emphasized again. The efforts of ETH's fervent supporters will ultimately not succeed.
(Odaily Planet Daily note: This implies that the development of L2 networks has become inevitable.)
5. The Ethereum ecosystem will become more cohesive
Although some dissenters may leave the Ethereum ecosystem, the overall sentiment of the community will shift towards a more positive direction, with ETH's market price performing well.
6. Rollup-based solutions will ultimately not take off in 2025
Protocols like Across will achieve sufficient cross-chain interoperability, but the realization of universal composability will remain elusive for now.
7. TEE (Trusted Execution Environment) will become a permanent part of L2 infrastructure
8. Solana will still be a key player in this cycle, but risks will emerge in 2025
The REV (economic value return) of the Solana ecosystem will struggle to reach new highs.
With the liquidity decentralization brought by meme coins and the emergence of MEV issues, extremism will rise, and these challenges will collectively pose risks to the ecosystem.
9. Solana's Firedancer will launch in Q4 2025, achieving 100,000 TPS
10. Solana will adjust its issuance mechanism to curb inflation, but Ethereum will not
11. Base will rise as a strong competitor to Solana and become the ultimate winner of the Rollup ecosystem
The TVL of the Base ecosystem will exceed $40 billion.
12. Base will become the main ecosystem for AI agents (and potential AI derivatives)
13. Stablecoins will become the main asset on L2
The on-chain issuance of L2 stablecoins will be twice that of ETH.
14. Stablecoins will experience explosive growth
The market capitalization of stablecoins will exceed $450 billion, becoming one of the top three investment categories for venture capitalists.
15. More than 5 large financial or traditional financial institutions will launch stablecoins in 2025
This will put pressure on existing stablecoin projects, and the growth rate of current stablecoins will slow down.
16. More than 10 enterprises (banks, Web2 giants, etc.) will launch L2 networks
However, most will end up failing without any significant outcomes. An exception may be fintech companies (like Robinhood).
17. Robinhood will rise in 2025 due to its large user base and blue-chip stocks
By the end of 2025, the crypto industry will rank Robinhood alongside Coinbase as the two major exchanges in the U.S.
18. Investment in L1 public chains will still be effective
Investment funds flowing into L1 public chains have not yet bottomed out and will continue for a long time.
Sui and HyperLiquid will be the fastest "dark horses" in the market.
19. The ICO (Initial Coin Offering) model will return to the market
Although not as popular as in 2017, the new ICO model will have better investor protection mechanisms, similar to crowdfunding models.
Five blue-chip level protocols will conduct ICOs.
20. Venture capital will return again, but at a scale smaller than in 2021
The scale of crypto venture capital in 2021 was $30 billion; it is expected to be around $20-25 billion in 2025.
At the same time, there will be more funding rounds of $50 million to $100 million.
（Odaily Planet Daily note: Currently, there are not many projects in this funding round, which somewhat indicates that the market has not fully recovered or even reached historical highs in activity.)
21. Crypto companies will pioneer IPOs (Initial Public Offerings), but there will not be a large-scale explosion
More than four crypto companies will initiate IPOs, but the overvaluation from 2021 will still be a barrier on this path.
Growth equity will still not enter this field.
22. The mainstream trend in 2025 will be the deep integration of AI and crypto
The continuous development of foundational large language models will trigger a new wave of media attention and further translate related dynamics into more AI concept tokens.
23. The AI trend will create segmented tracks, not limited to AI Agents
Different types of AI Agents (creators, hedge fund traders, artists, etc.) will successively take the crypto stage.
Unsurprisingly, most AI Agents will only be early iterations and will not succeed.
24. TikTok will have an unprecedented impact on the crypto field
Crypto Twitter (CT) will become the exit liquidity for some TikTok tokens.
（Odaily Planet Daily note: This has already been reflected in some meme coin projects that performed well this year, such as Moodeng and Chillguy. Compared to short videos, which are highly viral, the text information on the X platform, i.e., Twitter, spreads relatively slowly, making platform users likely to become "bag holders" of TikTok-related influencer concept meme coins.）
25. A significant crypto bill will be passed in the U.S.
An updated version of the stablecoin market structure bill may be signed into law in the U.S.
26. Bitcoin L2 will still not take off in 2025
We still have a long way to go before a truly zero-knowledge (ZK) Bitcoin L2 network is realized.
27. The cryptocurrency industry will be widely recognized as a permanent force in U.S. politics
Mainstream media will gradually change their previously negative or indifferent attitudes towards the crypto industry, recognizing that the cryptocurrency industry will become an indispensable part of the U.S. political landscape and will never disappear.
Endnote: Author's previous podcast recommendation
In early October this year, on Blockworks' Bell Curve podcast, Mippo (i.e., Mike) discussed the theme of "The Continued Adoption of Cryptocurrency in Institutions" with two other industry figures (Framework Ventures co-founders Michael Anderson and Vance Spencer). At that time, Trump's campaign partner Vance had just finished a vice presidential debate with Democratic vice presidential candidate Walz, and the direction of U.S. cryptocurrency legislation was beginning to shift. Looking back two months later, there may be new discoveries and insights for reference.
_Podcast link: _https://blockworks.co/podcast/bellcurve/026cb1da-828c-11ef-a046-a3c247d0bbf5
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