Presto: From Chaos to Clarity, 2024 Cryptocurrency Market Review and 2025 Predictions

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4 months ago

Presto Research releases its first annual report, providing a comprehensive review of key market trends and forward-looking predictions for 2025.

Written by: Presto Research

Translated by: Yuliya, PANews

The cryptocurrency market in 2024 shows significant differentiation. Data indicates that meme coins are leading the charge, VC-backed tokens are generally under pressure, while RWA tokenization has become a new market focus with a significant increase in trading volume. The market structure continues to evolve, with high FDV and low circulation tokens performing poorly, and institutional demand for Bitcoin allocation rising. These trends are worth continuous attention in the new market cycle.

Looking ahead to 2025, as infrastructure improves and regulations become clearer, the crypto asset market will enter a new phase. Bitcoin's store of value function, competition in public chain ecosystems, and innovative applications such as DEX and NFTs may become new growth drivers for the market.

In this context, Presto Research releases its first annual report, providing a comprehensive review of key market trends and forward-looking predictions for 2025.

Key predictions for 2025 include:

  • Bitcoin price reaching $210,000

  • Total cryptocurrency market capitalization expanding to $7.5 trillion

  • As Ethereum addresses user experience issues, the ETH/BTC ratio rebounds to 0.05

  • Solana surpassing $1,000

  • Stablecoin market capitalization reaching $300 billion

  • DEX trading volume exceeding 20% of CEX trading volume

  • New EVM Layer1 public chain market capitalization reaching $20 billion, with total locked value (TVL) reaching $10 billion

  • A sovereign nation or S&P 500 company incorporating Bitcoin into treasury reserves

  • Crypto hedge funds outperforming crypto VCs

  • ….

2024 Review

Best and Worst Performing Tokens Analysis

In a well-functioning market, asset prices encapsulate collective wisdom, forming dynamic signals that reflect market narratives, themes, and trends. Therefore, reviewing the best and worst performing projects in a thriving market is an effective way to reflect on the past. A detailed analysis will be provided in this regard.

Regarding the research methodology, the following points need to be clarified:

  • First, the analysis is limited to three major centralized exchanges: Binance, Bybit, and OKX.

  • Second, the analysis subjects are further divided into "newly listed projects (listed in 2024)" and "existing projects (listed in 2023 or earlier)."

  • Third, from these six subcategories, the top five best and worst performing projects are selected.

It is worth noting that this analytical method may not fully reflect the trends of mainstream assets like Bitcoin or Ethereum, as small-cap assets often exhibit more extreme volatility. Instead, this analysis aims to uncover potentially overlooked industry themes or individual projects.

Based on the above clarifications, the research identifies three key trends:

  • VC-backed tokens perform poorly

  • The meme coin craze continues

  • RWA tokenization is gaining attention

  • The rise of decentralized exchanges (DEX)

Top 5 Newly Listed Projects in 2024 (as of November 29)

Top 5 Existing Projects in 2024 (as of November 29)

"VC Coins" (Low Circulation / High FDV) Perform Poorly

Market data shows that poorly performing projects generally exhibit two characteristics:

  1. High inflation rates
  • New projects: Median of 22%

  • Existing projects: Median of 15%

  1. Low circulation rates
  • New projects: Median of only 30%

  • Existing projects: Median of 78%

This trend has become a unique phenomenon in the 2024 cryptocurrency market. While the negative impact of large-scale token unlocks has always been viewed as a risk factor, this year it has become a dominant narrative, with exchanges, project teams, and investors highly vigilant about it.

From a market development perspective, this change reflects that the crypto market is gradually maturing:

  • New tokens can no longer attract retail investors solely based on flashy packaging or well-known VC endorsements

  • The strategy of using information asymmetry to treat retail investors as exit channels for CEX is becoming less effective

  • The short-term arbitrage models commonly used by some VCs are becoming unsustainable

Meme Coin Craze

Retail investors generally perceive unfairness in VC coins, leading to a significant shift of funds towards the meme coin market. This trend has directly driven substantial growth in the meme coin sector, evident in the prominent positions of meme coins across all six top-performing lists.

Meme coins present a stark contrast to VC coins:

  • Generally lower inflation rates

  • Overall higher circulation rates

The narrative of "fairness" surrounding meme coins has had a significant impact on the crypto market in 2024:

  • Successfully attracting a large number of retail participants

  • Shifting market sentiment

  • Becoming one of the most notable features of the annual crypto market

RWA Projects Surpassing Meme Coins

The standout project of 2024 is Mantra (OM), which has seen a price increase far exceeding other projects:

  • OM: Up 6,118%

  • PEPE (best meme coin): Up 1,231%

Mantra positions itself as a "dedicated RWA public chain," capable of "meeting real-world regulatory requirements" by supporting fiat currencies, stocks, and compliant on-chain and off-chain protocols for tokenized RWAs. OM, as the governance token of MANTRA DAO, provides users with reward programs related to key plans and ecosystem development.

The outstanding performance of OM reflects two key trends:

  • The RWA sector is gaining favor in the market

  • The appeal of the RWA concept may surpass the meme narrative

Early Returns Shifting to DEX

Data shows that the yield of existing tokens is actually higher than that of newly listed projects, which contrasts with traditional perceptions. This phenomenon reflects an important change in the 2024 crypto market: DEX has become the primary venue for early price discovery of tokens.

Thanks to improvements in DEX functionality and user experience, many projects choose to launch on DEX first. Therefore, the steepest price increases often occur on DEX, while centralized exchanges can only capture the later stages of the rise. In the early days of the crypto market, centralized exchanges were the undisputed liquidity providers. However, with the rise of DEXs like Hyperliquid and Raydium, as well as applications like Moonshot and Pump.fun, the market landscape has changed.

2025 Predictions

Institutionalization Process Accelerating

The mainstreaming of cryptocurrency is ongoing and is expected to reach new heights in 2025, with the full participation of top institutions further accelerating this trend. Here are four major development predictions.

Bitcoin price is expected to reach $210,000 in 2025

The MVRV ratio (Market Value / Realized Value) has become one of the recognized reliable valuation tools for Bitcoin in the digital asset industry. Market Value (MV) calculates the total value of all circulating bitcoins at current market prices, while Realized Value (RV) calculates the value of each bitcoin based on on-chain transaction records, representing the average acquisition cost of all circulating bitcoins.

Historically, Bitcoin's MVRV ratio has fluctuated between 0.4x and 7.7x. If we only consider data since 2017 (excluding the early extreme volatility period), this range narrows to between 0.5x and 4.7x. In the past two bull markets (2017 and 2021), Bitcoin's MVRV peaks were 4.7x and 4x, respectively.

Using a more conservative multiplier of 3.5x and assuming that the realized value grows from the current $722 billion at a compound monthly growth rate of 5.3% to $1.2 trillion by the third quarter of 2025 (this growth rate reflects the institutional access facilitation brought by spot ETFs), the target value of the Bitcoin network in 2025 is estimated to be $4.2 trillion (currently $1.9 trillion), which translates to $210,000 per Bitcoin.

Bitcoin "Land Grab": New Sovereign Nations or S&P 500 Companies Will Adopt Bitcoin as Reserves

It is expected that a sovereign nation or an S&P 500 company will announce the incorporation of Bitcoin into their reserve strategy. For sovereign nations, "adoption" refers to government departments proposing to include Bitcoin in treasury reserves. Over the past three years, at least one country has taken similar actions each year. The campaign promise regarding Bitcoin reserves made after Trump's election may prompt other countries to explore similar strategies for game-theoretic reasons.

In terms of corporate adoption, MicroStrategy's parabolic rise in stock price this year has unprecedentedly attracted attention from the business community. With the FASB announcing earlier this year a shift from the previous lower of cost or market method to fair value accounting, this accounting barrier will be alleviated. MicroStrategy plans to implement this change before the first quarter of 2025, providing clearer guidance and stronger adoption motivation for other companies.

Stablecoin Market Capitalization Will Reach $300 Billion

While stablecoins may not be the primary focus for cryptocurrency speculators seeking high returns, they are undoubtedly one of the most successful applications of blockchain. After rebounding from a local low in November 2022, the total market capitalization of stablecoins has now reached $200 billion, making it the largest category of cryptocurrency applications.

99% of stablecoins are pegged to the US dollar, which is not coincidental. Tokenizing assets does not create demand out of thin air; rather, the assets being tokenized must have inherent global demand. Aside from the US dollar, few currencies enjoy such widespread demand, as evidenced by the dollar's dominant position as a settlement currency. This is why blockchain and US dollar stablecoins achieve the best product-market fit.

It is expected that the market capitalization of stablecoins will reach $300 billion by 2025, driven by both long-term and cyclical factors. Long-term drivers include recognition of the superior functionality of tokenized dollars and progress in stablecoin legislation by the US Congress. Cyclical drivers include a broader cryptocurrency bull market. Even at $300 billion, this would only represent 1.4% of the US dollar M2 supply, indicating significant room for growth.

More Corporate Actions: Circle/Ripple/Kraken to IPO

In the crypto-friendly environment of the Trump administration, opportunities that were previously shelved due to political risks may be unleashed. Traditional companies will view crypto startups as attractive assets for entering the crypto space, driving more M&A activity and higher valuations. There are already signs of this trend, as even struggling Bakkt has found a buyer in Trump Media.

Companies in the later growth stage will not miss this IPO opportunity. Well-known crypto companies like Circle, Ripple, and Kraken have long been seen as potential IPO candidates. For reference, Coinbase went public at the peak of the last bull market (April 2021).

The Trend of Stocking Cryptocurrencies

United States: The New Capital of Cryptocurrency

Trump's "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) and "America First" policy ideas are likely to extend into the cryptocurrency realm. To ensure that the US remains ahead of competitors like China in the global cryptocurrency landscape, the government may adopt a series of supportive policies. Rumors have circulated about plans to eliminate capital gains tax on cryptocurrencies issued by US-registered companies, indicating the government's intent to attract crypto innovation. This may just be the beginning of a series of policies.

This shift will fundamentally change the crypto industry. Currently, cryptocurrencies are viewed as global assets, with little regard for the location of projects or founders. However, as the US differentiates itself through favorable policies, this perception will change. Just as the nationality of companies is important in traditional stock markets, it will be so in the cryptocurrency space.

  • "American cryptocurrencies" will command a significant premium, attracting top talent and projects.

  • The US will replicate its successful model in the stock market, with US-listed companies enjoying valuation premiums due to the country's legal and economic stability.

  • The ripple effects of US dominance will extend to trading dynamics.

  • Trading volume and volatility during US trading hours may increase significantly, as macro and project-level news events will concentrate during US hours.

  • Additionally, US exchanges (especially Coinbase) are expected to grow significantly, with listings on their platforms signaling global legitimacy, similar to important IPOs on Nasdaq.

  • At the project level, Coinbase's Base ecosystem will be one of the biggest beneficiaries of US dominance.

Cryptocurrency Shifts to Fundamentals: Liquidity Hedge Funds Will Perform Well

The crypto industry is shifting from speculative hype to fundamentals-driven investment, thanks to the rise of standardized valuation frameworks. These frameworks are reshaping how projects are evaluated, financed, and traded, making crypto investment more regulated and closer to traditional financial principles.

As projects generate revenue through staking rewards, token buybacks, and trading fees, they become systematically assessable. Investors can now calculate the actual returns for token holders and evaluate project sustainability. Metrics such as TVL/market cap ratio and protocol revenue multiples are gaining recognition.

In 2025, liquidity hedge funds are expected to outperform venture capital funds, profiting from their valuation-based strategies in both bull and bear markets. At least five major macro or long/short equity hedge funds may enter the space, while major investment banks are expected to formally cover digital assets.

The Rise of Crypto Indices: Index Trading Volume Will Rank in the Top Five

As cryptocurrencies become a mainstream asset class, ordinary investors are beginning to recognize the importance of including them in their portfolios, leading to an increasing demand for simplified and diversified investment methods. This shift mirrors the trajectory of traditional stock markets, where investors have moved from selecting individual stocks to purchasing the S&P 500 index, and the crypto market is undergoing a similar evolution.

In traditional finance, ETFs currently account for 13% of the total US stock assets. Cryptocurrencies are expected to follow a similar trajectory, with index products providing a portfolio of assets across sectors or themes.

Currently, projects are developing unique use cases and behavioral patterns, with the performance of different sectors driven by unique fundamentals, no longer merely following Bitcoin's price movements. Indices are expected to become major products on leading exchanges, with crypto equivalents of $SPDR products (such as the Coinbase 50 index) likely to emerge and consistently rank in the top five by trading volume.

The Second Phase of the Bull Market

Solana Will Reach $1,000

The path for Solana to reach $1,000 is built on its transition from a high-performance blockchain to a deeply institutionalized ecosystem. The surge in institutional adoption, coupled with the $173 million raised by projects in the third quarter of 2024, reflects that the platform has reached a critical intersection of technical excellence and institutional embedding.

Network activity has shown unprecedented growth, with Solana accounting for over 50% of all on-chain daily transaction volume, with activity increasing by 1,900% year-on-year. This explosive growth reflects a deep truth about the network's success— as explored by Placeholder's Mario Laul, the success of a network depends not only on technology but also on the degree of institutionalization achieved through professional infrastructure and developer network effects. Solana's differentiation stems from its unique cultural philosophy: prioritizing rapid innovation over theoretical perfection, in stark contrast to Ethereum's research-first approach.

From a technical roadmap perspective, Anatoly is advancing the vision of a global state machine with a 120-millisecond block time, and the network architecture is inherently suited for rollup-based scaling, laying the groundwork for unprecedented scalability. The upcoming Firedancer client aims to achieve one million transactions per second, further exemplifying this pragmatic progress.

In the coming year, 1.93% of tokens will enter the market, with an estimated market cap of $48.593 billion at $1,000—this falls within the historical precedent set by Ethereum. This combination of cultural differentiation, institutional adoption, technological evolution, and favorable token economics creates a compelling case for SOL's rise.

The Total Market Capitalization of Cryptocurrencies Will Reach $7.5 Trillion

In 2024, the cryptocurrency market continues to be dominated by Bitcoin. Institutional funds are continuously flowing in through ETFs, and the institutionalization process of Bitcoin is deepening. Coupled with the favorable conditions brought about by Trump's victory, this veteran cryptocurrency continues to outperform most altcoins.

If Bitcoin reaches $150,000 and maintains a 60% market cap share, the overall cryptocurrency market size will reach $7.49 trillion, more than 2.5 times the previous peak (November 2021, $2.9 trillion).

The duration of this bull market will be significantly influenced by President Trump's term. There are two possible development paths for the market:

  • In the optimistic scenario, Trump will implement policies that promote economic growth, relax regulations, maintain low tariffs, and uphold open immigration policies. This could lead to rising real interest rates, a stronger dollar, and a rising stock market, but gold prices may come under pressure.

  • In the pessimistic scenario, a trade war may erupt, imposing a 60% tariff on China and a general 10-20% tariff worldwide, while tightening immigration policies. This would lead the Federal Reserve to loosen policies and lower interest rates, with the dollar initially strengthening and then weakening, stock markets adjusting, and gold prices rising.

However, regardless of the scenario, there are favorable factors for cryptocurrencies:

  • In an optimistic environment, Bitcoin may rise in sync with risk assets;

  • In a pessimistic environment, Bitcoin may correlate positively with gold and negatively with the dollar.

Considering Trump's cabinet selections and overall policy orientation, the market environment is more likely to lean towards the optimistic path, providing favorable support for risk-seeking crypto assets.

2025 NFT Rebound: Monthly Trading Volume Will Reach $2 Billion

Currently, Bitcoin is reaching new historical highs, but market sentiment seems different from before. The magic moment of "a rising tide lifts all boats" in the bull market cycle has not yet arrived, which is precisely why there is an optimistic outlook for NFTs in 2025. The current market is entering a mature phase, and historical experience shows that this is often the most culturally innovative stage.

Current data supports the potential for this cultural renaissance, with NFT sales reaching $562 million in November 2024, a month-on-month increase of 57.8%. The continued development of the NFT subculture and its influence on the broader crypto culture, from garbage art to the emergence of unique artistic movements like generative art, reflects an increasingly mature ecosystem.

The adoption of NFTs by mainstream brands like Nike and Sony is not only about corporate adoption but also a legitimization of these digital subcultures. It is expected that at some point in 2025, monthly NFT trading volume will exceed $2 billion (the average monthly volume in 2021 was $2.056 billion).

Focus on Fundamentals

Ethereum Rebound: ETH/BTC Ratio Will Restore to 0.05

In the second half of 2024, Ethereum has become one of the most controversial topics in the crypto industry. While single chains like Solana have achieved significant development due to their "convenience and speed," Ethereum still faces numerous challenges:

  • Lack of a comprehensive proof system for L2 networks

  • User experience issues caused by asset fragmentation

  • Insufficient narrative cohesion

These factors have led the ETH/BTC ratio to hit a new low since 2021.

Despite these challenges, Ethereum remains worthy of close attention in 2025 and beyond. It is expected that if Bitcoin reaches $120,000 and Ethereum climbs to $6,000, the ETH/BTC ratio may return to 0.05. Two important upgrades are worth noting:

1. L2 Network De-fragmentation (ERC-7683 and EIP-7702)

In recent years, while Ethereum's L2 solutions have addressed scalability issues, they have also led to ecological fragmentation, with each L2 network forming an independent ecosystem, complicating cross-chain operations. New upgrades will:

  • Standardize intents through ERC-7683: Allow users to declare desired operations without worrying about specific L2 network details

  • Implement account abstraction through EIP-7702: Allow external accounts (EOAs) to temporarily act as smart contract wallets

  • Achieve seamless cross-chain operations: Users can complete cross-chain token swaps, asset transfers, and governance voting in one go

2. Beam Chain Roadmap Optimization

The Beam Chain roadmap announced by Justin Drake of the Ethereum Foundation at Devcon 7 proposes a long-term plan through 2029, involving nine major upgrades across three categories: block production, staking, and cryptography:

  • Reduce final confirmation time from 15 minutes to 36 seconds (3-slot finality)

  • Decrease block time from 12 seconds to 4 seconds

  • Lower the minimum staking requirement from 32 ETH to 1 ETH

Based on currently available information, updates related to L2 de-fragmentation are expected to be launched in early 2025, while the Beam Chain roadmap has yet to determine a specific timeline. Notably, the core proposals of the Beam Chain roadmap involve fundamentally changing key mechanisms of Ethereum's consensus layer, which may take over 1-2 years to complete.

Focus on DAG-based Blockchains (SUI, APTOS, HBAR, FTM)

Traditional blockchains are like a one-way street, where all transactions must queue up to pass through sequentially. In contrast, DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) technology resembles a complex road network, allowing multiple lanes to operate simultaneously. This design allows for a qualitative leap in transaction processing efficiency, marking a significant evolution in blockchain technology.

The early DAG project IOTA, while pioneering this technology in the crypto world, faced many inherent limitations, much like the first-generation iPhone. Performance declined when network transaction volume was insufficient, and it required a centralized coordinator to "stand guard," ultimately limiting its development.

The emergence of Sui has injected new vitality into DAG technology. It has not completely abandoned the advantages of traditional blockchains but has cleverly integrated DAG into its consensus mechanism. Through the innovative Mysticeti consensus protocol, validators can freely and concurrently process blocks, ensuring decentralization and security while significantly enhancing network performance. This is akin to Tesla's perfect combination of electric motors with traditional automotive craftsmanship.

Sui's technological innovations have quickly gained market recognition. Since September 2024, the price of Sui has surged over 300%, currently holding a TVL of $1.6 billion, ranking third among non-EVM public chains. Even after experiencing a large-scale unlock at the end of 2024, Sui has demonstrated strong resilience. Looking ahead to 2025, as the unlocking pressure significantly eases, Sui's development prospects appear even brighter.

Not only Sui, but the entire DAG track is also showing a thriving trend. Aptos, which also employs DAG technology, has risen to fourth place in non-EVM public chain TVL, with a locked amount of $1.13 billion. DAG projects like IOTA, HBAR, and FTM have also achieved at least a 100% increase since September 2024.

As technology continues to mature, DAG projects are proving themselves to be the most suitable public chain solutions for large-scale applications. It is expected that by 2025, the total TVL of major DAG projects will grow from the current $3.1 billion to $5-6 billion, equivalent to more than half of Solana's current TVL.

The Golden Age of On-Chain

The Gold Rush of DEX: The Spot DEX to CEX Trading Volume Ratio Will Exceed 20%, and the Perpetual Contract DEX to CEX Ratio Will Exceed 10%

Although CEX platforms like Binance and Coinbase remain the primary trading platforms for most investors, the trading volume ratio of DEX to CEX is gradually increasing as the bull market progresses. This trend is expected to accelerate next year, with the spot trading volume ratio likely exceeding 20% and the perpetual contract trading volume ratio likely exceeding 10%.

Three factors are driving this transformation:

  • First, under the new Trump administration, a more DeFi-friendly regulatory environment will expand DeFi scenarios, encouraging exploration with less scrutiny and token value accumulation. This will enhance the demand for DeFi tokens and create a virtuous cycle for the entire on-chain ecosystem.

  • Second, user experiences across multiple layers, such as wallets, trading terminals, and trading bots, have significantly improved. After the collapse of FTX, traders have become more sensitive to counterparty risks, making on-chain activities more popular. Phantom has repeatedly ranked among the top applications this year, indicating that on-chain user experience and popularity have reached unprecedented levels.

  • Third, the listing of high-valuation tokens on CEX will drive more investors to turn to on-chain. As the crypto industry reaches a trillion-dollar scale, the phenomenon of new tokens being issued with valuations in the hundreds of millions or billions of dollars is becoming increasingly common. Investors are becoming more aware that the era of holding tokens on CEX for excess returns is over, and the most profitable opportunities are on-chain.

Although on-chain operations and self-custody still have certain barriers, the FOMO sentiment in the bull market will undoubtedly drive more users to embrace the on-chain economy. This wave of "gold rush" will not only bring an increase in user numbers but also promote the entire blockchain industry towards an open, trustless economic system.

Digital Gold Surpasses Gold: The Value of the Bitcoin Ecosystem Will Exceed 1% of the BTC Network

After multiple cycles, Bitcoin is increasingly accepted by the public as digital gold and a store of value. Since 2023, numerous protocols have emerged to unlock Bitcoin's full potential as digital gold. Native Bitcoin protocols like Ordinals and Runes have made Bitcoin the foundational layer of native DeFi by minting tokens and NFTs directly on its blockchain. Additionally, various L2 solutions and re-staking protocols have begun to utilize Bitcoin for yield generation.

Since the launch of the Ordinals protocol in 2023, transaction fees on the Bitcoin network have surged to levels seen during previous bull markets. However, on the eve of the upcoming new bull market, transaction fees have returned to normal, indicating that on-chain demand for Bitcoin has not yet been fully unleashed. According to market trends, if a bull market arrives as expected in 2025, Bitcoin's on-chain usage and transaction fees are likely to reach historical highs.

While most Bitcoin holders prioritize stability, the market's demand for yield generation from Bitcoin remains persistent. Current data illustrates this point:

  • Bitcoin ranks sixth among all public chains in total locked value (TVL), with approximately $3.8 billion of Bitcoin being used for yield generation.

  • Including the total market capitalization of Ordinals and Runes, the entire Bitcoin on-chain ecosystem has reached a market size of $7 billion.

  • Considering Bitcoin's status as a $2 trillion asset, its 1% supply would represent over $20 billion invested in the ecosystem.

Return of the EVM Era: New Alternative EVM L1s Will Reach Over $20 Billion in Market Cap and Over $10 Billion in TVL

In 2024, on-chain growth is primarily concentrated in non-EVM ecosystems, particularly Solana and Sui:

  • Solana's on-chain transaction volume has surpassed the total of Ethereum and all its L2 networks.

  • Sui's development momentum has outpaced most Ethereum L2 solutions.

  • The market share of the EVM ecosystem, excluding the Ethereum mainnet, has significantly declined in terms of TVL (total locked value).

This trend is expected to reverse in 2025:

  • New alternative EVM L1 public chains are expected to reach a market cap of $20 billion.

  • TVL is projected to reach $10 billion.

  • This target was previously achieved by Avalanche in 2021.

Despite significant growth in networks like Solana and Sui, the EVM ecosystem still possesses unparalleled depth. It has the largest user and developer base, unmatched liquidity, and a TVL of $165 billion, which is four times that of all other ecosystems combined. This massive liquidity, primarily based on ETH, has remained on the sidelines during the Solana meme coin frenzy in 2024. However, the growing interest in EVM-based protocols like Hyperliquid, Ethena, and Virtuals indicates the presence of potential demand.

This prediction is not bearish on Solana or Sui but rather optimistic about the development prospects of EVM networks. EVM networks have the following advantages:

Technical Advantages

  • More convenient cross-chain bridging

  • Simpler DApp deployment

  • Better wallet compatibility

User Base

  • Solana (especially the Phantom wallet) has excelled in attracting new users.

  • Jupiter has over 500,000 daily active traders.

  • Even if only 10% of users transition to on-chain DeFi, it will significantly enhance the ecosystem's vitality and liquidity.

Expected growth will primarily focus on EVM-compatible L1 networks rather than L2 networks:

  • Challenges faced by L2 networks: Most L2 networks struggle to gain effective traction, and user adoption rates fall short of expectations.

  • Advantages of L1 networks: Attract users and liquidity through the wealth effect of native tokens, as evidenced by the success stories of BSC, Avalanche, and Fantom in 2021.

Promising alternative EVM L1s in this cycle include: Hyperliquid, Monad, and Berachain.

Conclusion

The crypto world is like a vast starry sky, complex and intricate. Even the most comprehensive research reports struggle to fully depict this thriving new frontier. This study focuses on the most practically applicable tracks, attempting to reveal how crypto technology can break free from the shackles of speculative bubbles and truly serve the real world.

However, innovation in the crypto space never stops. Experimental fields such as blockchain gaming (GameFi), decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN), and decentralized social (DeSoc) may not yet be mature, but they hold infinite possibilities for breakthrough innovations. These emerging tracks may not have found a clear path to mainstream adoption yet, but their revolutionary potential cannot be overlooked.

Looking ahead to 2025, the crypto industry will continue to evolve in a clearer regulatory environment. New ideas will continuously emerge, and new trends will keep evolving. In this noisy market, maintaining a humble and open mindset is crucial, while also staying agile and focused. Navigating through the fog to seek true knowledge is essential to seizing opportunities in this digital revolution.

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