Options tied to BlackRock's spot bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) debuted with a bang on Tuesday, registering a staggering first-day trading volume of $1.9 billion.
Most activity was concentrated in call options, representing a bullish bias, with some traders betting on doubling the ETF price to at least $100. The Nasdaq-listed ETF closed Tuesday at $52.70.
The $100 strike call option saw a trading volume of over 32,000 contracts, according to data tracked by analytics firm ConvexValue. Most of the value happened in the Dec. 12 expiry, which was also the most popular settlement overall, accounting for 40% of the total trading volume of 354,000 contracts.
"It’s pretty interesting to see 'professionals' degen into $100 strikes (this effectively means a doubling of BTC prices given IBIT trades near $50)," Samneet Chepal, crypto quant researcher, Samneet Chepal, said on X.
The notable uptake for the $100 IBIT call is consistent with activity on offshore crypto options exchange Deribit, where $381 million in notional open interest is locked in the $200,000 strike bitcoin call. Assuming those buyers are investors and not market makers, it's safe to say that they are bracing up for the doubling of the spot price.
Note that Tuesday's most traded IBIT option was the call at the $55 strike, and the overall volume of call options was four times higher than that of put options.
A call option gives the holder the right but not the obligation to purchase the underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specific date. A call buyer is implicitly bullish on the market, looking to profit from or protect the short spot/futures market position from an expected price surge in the underlying asset.
According to Deribit, the stateside demand for calls and the resulting "trend trading" by market makers to hedge their books could set the stage for a gamma squeeze higher in BTC's price.
"U.S. institutions and retail who can't trade on Deribit, the largest crypto options market, will now be able to enter the space and create more open interest around certain price levels, which can further trigger volatility and gamma squeezes in addition to Deribit," Luuk Strijers, Deribit's chief executive officer said in an email, echoing opinion of other analysts.
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