The price of bitcoin has been hitting new all-time highs over the past week since Donald Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5. On election night, it ran past the previous all-time high of $73,730 and, at publication time, was trading around $87,000, according to The Block's price data.

With the tailwinds of Trump’s election, the possibility of sovereign nations getting in the mix in anticipation of a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve, and the loosening interest rates, how long can the post-election surge keep up?

“Don’t fight this,” Bernstein analysts told clients in a note on Monday. "Welcome to the crypto bull market — buy everything you can."

Bernstein and Standard Chartered see a $200,000 bitcoin price target by the end of next year, but how soon could the world's largest cryptocurrency breach $100,000? Polymarket bets on whether that will happen by the end of 2024 surpassed $3 million in total trading volume today, with 59% odds of it occurring.

“Bitcoin hitting $100,000 isn’t a matter of if — it’s a matter of when," Michael Cahill, CEO of Douro Labs, told The Block. "In my opinion, that could be as early as the first quarter of 2025. As the current macro environment is aligning favorably for digital assets, we’re seeing unprecedented momentum."

According to Cahill, the post-election rally is more than just FOMO, but he said the current price isn’t just retail-driven speculation like it was in 2017.

"The market is finally recognizing Bitcoin as a legitimate asset and a hedge against inflationary pressures," he said. "[T]oday, we’re seeing a structural shift in how investors view Bitcoin. The groundwork for a six-figure price tag is already in motion, and this rally has the potential to solidify Bitcoin as a cornerstone of the global financial system."

Since blowing past the $74,000 level, there's an air gap until $100,000, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, who said Bitcoin could "easily" reach that level by year-end.

"Everyone is focused on new people buying bitcoin. That's very real," Hougan said in a post on X. "But an equal part of this rally is that people have stopped selling. Long-term owners are no longer willing to part with bitcoin below $100k, and short-sellers don't want to step in front of a freight train."

Tides.Network CEO Chandra Duggirala said a price of $100,000 could easily happen before Thanksgiving, but there's a very near-term risk.

"We are not seeing strong FOMO from wealth managers and retail has just started paying attention. So, the trend is still young. We believe real FOMO will come once $100K is crossed," Duggirala said in an email.

This point was echoed by Zaheer Ebtikar, the founder and CIO of Split Capital.

"Historically, people have also been kind of forced this narrative or idea that, you know, Bitcoin moves really happened when the all-time high break, so then I think that's been kind of self-fulfilling," Ebtikar told The Block. "But I think more importantly... a lot of smarter money and a lot of crypto natives are front running the potential future capital that's gonna kind of come into the space."

He noted that if people want to give money to an asset allocator, it won't happen instantaneously. Because of this, much of the FOMO will not truly materialize until Dec. 1 at the earliest, with Jan. 1, 2025, looking more realistic.

"I think we have a pretty weird window where it's like a lot of sharper capital that can, you know, move money around is getting in before more of a systematic bid kind of faces the market," Ebtikar said.

Bitcoin could be at $100,000 by the end of the year "without question," said Two Prime CEO Alexander Blume.

"Implied volatility on BTC sits at 55," Blume said. "Though a bit elevated, I would expect it to reach far higher before we reached market peak. That and the only now reemergence of lending markets tells me there is still some room to run."

Traders, for their part, appear to be snapping up bitcoin call options at the $100,000 strike price, according to CF Benchmarks' data. The 30-day constant maturity 25 delta skew has now breached the 5 vol threshold, which the firm said is near the year-to-date high and implies much greater demand for upside exposure.

"Furthermore, implied volatility for far out-of-the-money calls, like the 5D call with a current strike above $100,000, is noticeably higher, suggesting traders are preparing for a further move above the 6-figure line," Thomas Erdösi, head of product at CF Benchmarks, said in a statement.

The Dec. 27 open interest shows a buildup of call demand at the $100,000 strike, Wintermute data shows, where $850 billion notional will be represented. Into the end of the first quarter of next year, the March 28 contracts show a build-up in demand between $100,000 - $120,000 strikes. The ETH-BTC spot exchange rate rose by 11% over the past week, marking the third-largest upward move of the year.

"As consistently pointed out in 2024, this spread has been faded at every opportunity. The prevailing is that ‘this time it’s different’—a precarious position to be in, and the market has softened since Friday's highs," said Jake Ostrovskis, OTC Trader at Wintermute.

Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick says the $90,000 level is "easily achievable" ahead of Nov. 29, while $100,000 is in sight for Dec. 27 and $125,000 by the end of the year. He highlighted Dec. 10 as an important date to watch, as the Microsoft board is due to vote on whether it will invest in BTC.

"...Following the 2016 election a lot of Trump trades peaked around the time of the 20 Jan inauguration," Kendrick wrote in a Nov. 10 email to clients. "So if BTC can’t reach 125k by 31 Dec I think it will by 20 Jan."

With the most pro-crypto U.S. Congress ever assembled, thanks to election defeats by the likes of Sen. Sherrod Brown, the industry will have more support across all branches of government. Combined with Trump’s economic policies that could weaken the U.S. dollar, Arthur Hayes has his eyes set on seeing Bitcoin fly even higher.

“As the freely traded supply of bitcoin dwindles, the most fiat money in history will be chasing a safe haven from not just Americans but Chinese, Japanese and Western Europeans,” Hayes said. “This is how bitcoin goes to $1 million, because prices are set on the margin. Get long, and stay long.”

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