Protestors from Jan. 6 are more likely to get a pardon than Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht during a second Trump White House – but not by much – according to Polymarket bettors.
Polymarket bettors are giving an 86% chance of January 6 protestors getting a pardon, and a 78% chance of Ulbricht getting one.
Trump has publicly argued that Jan. 6 protesters were patriots ensnared by a "two systems of justice" approach he claims targets his supporters unfairly, just as he believes he is facing politically motivated charges.
He has framed the events of Jan. 6 as a "day of love," asserting that his supporters were merely responding to a "rigged" election.
On the campaign trail, Trump pledged to commute Ross Ulbricht's sentence to time served (which is different from a pardon) and to pardon Jan. 6 defendants if re-elected, framing these actions as part of his opposition to government overreach and support for personal freedoms.
As CoinDesk reported at the time, Trump’s pledge at the Libertarian National Convention to free Ross Ulbricht, sentenced to life for creating the Silk Road marketplace, received strong support from the audience in attendance.
Although Trump didn't provide a specific reason as to why he thinks Ulbricht should be freed, many view Ulbricht’s double-life sentence without parole as excessive for a non-violent offense related to creating Silk Road, which demonstrated Bitcoin’s potential as a decentralized, censorship-resistant system.
Ulbricht's mother is leading a campaign to free him and argues that his sentence could be considered cruel and unusual under the Eighth Amendment, especially in comparison to what she calls some of more lenient sentences given to other Silk Road associates.
It should be noted that the Polymarket contract is for a pardon, but Trump has not promised to do that, unlike with the Jan. 6 protestors. While Ulbricht would be free with both a pardon and a commute the inconsistency in the language would likely lead to a UMA dispute -- which happens when contract language is not carefully written -- should Trump follow through with this.
Aside from these two groups, bettors are giving a 14% chance that he pardons himself, and a 6% chance he pardons Sam Bankman-Fried.
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