Decentralized predictions platform Polymarket has resolved its U.S. presidential election market after the Associated Press, Fox and NBC all called the race for Trump.
If the news organizations hadn’t made the call, the market would have remained open until inauguration day on Jan. 20 and resolved to whoever got inaugurated.
Polymarket bettors gave Trump a 62% chance of winning the presidential race compared to Kamala Harris’ 38% coming into Election Day, in a market that swung back and forth between the two candidates before considerably diverging in Trump’s favor in October. However, national polling averages remained close, showing a 1% lead for Harris before Tuesday.
Donald Trump repositioned himself as a pro-crypto candidate this year — accepting cryptocurrencies for campaign donations and outlining policies such as turning the U.S. into a bitcoin mining “powerhouse,” appointing a crypto-friendly SEC chair and creating a national strategic bitcoin reserve.
In contrast, Kamala Harris did not put forward any specific crypto policies, instead offering broader comments around encouraging crypto business while protecting consumers, that the U.S. should become “dominant” in blockchain, and that digital assets are a part of her vision of an "opportunity economy."
U.S. presidential election bets on Polymarket had reached more than $3 billion heading into Election Day, with around $1.3 billion in trading volume for Trump and $822 million for Harris, with the remainder directed toward other potential candidates earlier in the race.
Ahead of the result, analysts at Kaiko had argued that despite the significant trading volume, open interest levels on Polymarket suggested the platform lacked liquidity for U.S. election bets, and its predictive power was up for debate.
Others pointed to prediction platforms having a mixed elections track record, whales potentially skewing the market or potential bias due to a dominance of men, crypto-natives and non-U.S. traders using the platform.
However, supporters of prediction markets’ accuracy argued that a focus on popular vote polls rather than the electoral college and the use of backward-looking polls in election models were key factors. They also highlighted that most betting markets shared similar odds with Polymarket, suggesting minimal likelihood of manipulation. Further, academic studies show that prediction markets tend to be more accurate than surveys or expert opinions, with transparency, crowd wisdom and market dynamics driving the odds toward accuracy, analysts at crypto trading firm and market maker GSR noted earlier this week.
Post-election, analysts at Animoca Brands Research claimed that Polymarket users will likely stick with the platform after its biggest draw, citing the 75% of traders with positions on diverse and unrelated topics, indicating “sustained interest.”
Analysts had predicted big crypto price swings in either direction as the results came in. On Monday, Bernstein analysts said they expected bitcoin to reach $80,000 to $90,000 following a Trump win in the run-up to inauguration day on Jan. 20 while warning a Harris victory could see bitcoin drop to $50,000 over the same period before any recovery.
Bitcoin is currently trading for $73,757 following the call, having reached new all-time highs above $75,000 overnight, according to The Block’s Bitcoin Price Page. The foremost cryptocurrency rose 7.3% over the last 24 hours, with its year-to-date gains now standing at 66%.
Meanwhile, the GMCI 30 index, which represents a selection of the top 30 cryptocurrencies, is up 9% over the past day to 130.22 but has gained around 31% in 2024.
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