Original Title: Crypto's Big Trump Gamble

Original Author: Ben Schiller

Translation by: Mensh, ChainCatcher

This year, the crypto industry finally has its "friend," and his name is Donald Trump. For years, this industry has been searching for a political spokesperson, someone who can guide its liberation thoughts and bring its ideas to a wider audience. Now, that person is Trump.

He stood on the stage of the Nashville Bitcoin Conference, expressing how much he likes people in the crypto industry. He announced the establishment of a Bitcoin strategic reserve. He promised to release Ross Ulbricht. He handed out hamburgers at PubKey in New York. He even launched his own DeFi project—World Liberty Financial—and developed an internal management model (what better way to show his loyalty to cryptocurrency?).

Trump said what cryptocurrency wanted to hear and did what cryptocurrency wanted to do, attracting millions of dollars in donations. The loudmouths rallied for him, while culture warriors expressed their hatred in the performance. He occupied the political space that the Biden administration and Harris's campaign team could have claimed if they weren't so submissive to the Warren wing. He was right about everything because Trump always says what people want him to say. He fits perfectly with the goals of the crypto party, as his politics can adapt to any situation, and the crypto party desperately needs a friend.

I have to admit, all of this makes me personally uncomfortable, not because I have any fondness for Harris, but because Trump has long been an unreasonable friend. He could easily take an entirely opposite view on cryptocurrency if it served his interests, and he has done so. I am very concerned about the crypto industry's embrace of Trump because I find it hard to believe that Trump aligns with the principles that attracted me to cryptocurrency.

So, what are the three reasons we should be wary of as an industry?

Trump May Not Deliver on His Promises

Many White House officials during Trump's first term spoke about his unprincipled nature. His former chief of staff, John Kelly, said he fits the definition of a fascist: someone willing to overturn constitutional norms to achieve his goals.

Here’s what a former Trump White House official said this morning:

John Mitnick stated: Trump is reckless, irritable, vengeful, narcissistic, and disrespects the Constitution and the rule of law; Trump is not a conservative; he is more like a dictator and fascist driven by personal interests. He does not care about you and your family as he claims; he only cares about himself.

Seriously, shouldn't this concern us? Is it not strange to ally the crypto cause with an unreliable person? Crypto should abhor single points of failure, yet it joins a cult of personality; isn't that odd?

For Trump to become a politician for cryptocurrency, he must view the issues of cryptocurrency as his own. Harris and her team have occasionally engaged with cryptocurrency over the past few months, indicating they might flirt with the issue. This summer, Trump made it clear to participants in the cryptocurrency dance that he would not engage with Democrats. Why?

Because Trump must be that person: he will not share this issue with Democrats. That’s how it was in Nashville. Elon Musk was expected to have a conversation with Trump at the Bitcoin conference. However, according to an insider and CoinDesk's tracking of Musk's private jet, he turned around and left when Trump was unwilling to share the stage with him. Trump needs to be that person.

It is certain that Democrats have abandoned cryptocurrency themselves. This started with mining; after the industry returned to the U.S., all new factories went to red states. Democrats began to view Bitcoin mining as an environmentally harmful illegal activity, while Texas and other states embraced it as part of their grid flexibility plans. Personally, I fully support integrating mining into the grid; it is foolish for Democrats to ban mining and lose this industry.

But the interesting question is, how would Trump react if Democrats really began to seriously support cryptocurrency?

Alienating Outsiders

In seeking power and relevance, cryptocurrency has allied with the Republican Party. It often does not say so openly, but it has. Those managing its campaign teams are all Republicans. The lower-tier candidates it favors are mostly Republicans. When organizations like Stand With Crypto urge people to vote, you know they won't support voting for Senator Elizabeth Warren.

These campaign groups do not always explicitly state their preferences. But their allies do, and the effect is often exclusionary. For example, here’s former Messari Ryan Selkis discussing his feelings about today’s liberal white women.

This is a free country; Selkis can say whatever he wants. He might even think that saying this is brave. But seriously, does this benefit cryptocurrency? Does such language align with the goal of making cryptocurrency mainstream? Wouldn't liberal white women, along with other groups that Ryan has been defaming around the clock for the past six months, be put off? Would they not think that cryptocurrency is made up of bad actors like Selkis? If you want to build a broad crypto movement, you certainly do not want to alienate women.

Cryptocurrency Will Be Associated with Policies Unrelated to Cryptocurrency

Earlier this year, when I first heard the term "single-issue voter" associated with cryptocurrency, I immediately thought "BS." How can you support a candidate or party on a single issue? Electoral politics does not work that way. When you support someone like Trump, you automatically support a wide range of policies.

Thus, when crypto offers Trump $10 million to reinterpret the "Howey Test," it is also supporting (in no particular order, just to name a few of Trump's policies) a "peace agreement" on Ukraine (a.k.a. surrender), mass deportations, opposition to abortion, and transgender rights. Is this really the outcome that cryptocurrency wants from a cultural and social perspective?

Caution is the mother of safety. The Biden administration and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's opposition to cryptocurrency over the past three years has been detrimental to the crypto industry, which must respond. However, if this election aligns with a person named Trump, it could bring a whole new set of different and currently unforeseen drawbacks.

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