Bettors have shown a consistent shift in support for Donald Trump in the 2024 U.S. election race, leaving Kamala Harris trailing in their forecasts. As of 8 a.m. ET on U.S. Election Day, numbers from the U.S.-regulated prediction market Kalshi put Trump’s odds at 58%, while Harris stands at 42%, according to active wagers. In line with two days prior, Trump is favored in four of six battleground states on Kalshi.

According to Kalshi’s predictions, Trump is expected to take Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona, while Harris holds the edge in Wisconsin and Michigan. There’s been an increase in bets favoring a Republican sweep, as Kalshi participants predict the Republican Party could win all three branches of the U.S. government. Kalshi’s election odds place a 40% likelihood of a Republican trifecta. Despite Trump’s projected electoral success, Kalshi markets indicate Harris holds onto the popular vote lead.

Over on Polymarket, Trump’s odds of victory have also risen. At 8 a.m. ET, Polymarket puts Trump’s chances at 61.7%, leaving Harris with 38.5%. The battleground outlook mirrors Kalshi’s, with Polymarket bettors similarly expecting Trump to take Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona, and Harris projected to keep Michigan and Wisconsin.

Polymarket bettors also anticipate Harris winning the popular vote, while Trump is forecasted to secure the electoral college. However, Polymarket participants diverge slightly on control of government branches; they now foresee Republicans winning the executive branch and Senate, with Democrats expected to hold the House as of Nov. 5. Meanwhile, the odds of a Republican trifecta on Polymarket stand at 39%.

On Nov. 5, recenty updated figures from covers.com show Trump’s implied probability of winning at 63.6%, with Harris at 40%. Data from betohio.com collected on Nov. 4 similarly gives Trump a 62% chance, leaving Harris at 42%. The growing gap between popular and electoral forecasts hints at the race’s complexity, underscoring the unique dynamics of the U.S. electoral system.

While Harris holds the popular vote, Trump’s lead in the electoral count reflects a recurring pattern in recent cycles, suggesting that bettors are bracing for a close and decisive finish that could shape the nation’s direction.

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