Analysts at Bernstein, a major global research and investment management firm, have reiterated their long-term forecast for bitcoin, projecting a price of $200,000 by late 2025, independent of the results from Tuesday’s U.S. election.

Bernstein’s team suggests Donald Trump’s crypto-positive stance differs sharply from Kamala Harris’s more conservative approach, which aligns with the Democrats’ stricter regulatory policies toward digital assets. In a note published on Monday, they wrote:

The bitcoin genie is out of the bottle, and it is hard to reverse this course. Our bitcoin price target for the end of 2025 remains $200,000 independent of the election outcome.

However, short-term shifts could occur based on the election results, the analysts described. Should Trump win, Bernstein expects bitcoin’s value to climb to $90,000 by Jan. 20, Inauguration Day. Conversely, a Harris win might see bitcoin drop to approximately $50,000.

Gautam Chhugani, an analyst with Bernstein, pointed out the volatility over the weekend on Polymarket, a prediction platform where Trump currently leads Harris. Addressing allegations of bias, he stated:

To anyone who was suggesting Polymarket data is manipulated with a Trump bias, we believe we had enough proof over the weekend to suggest that it behaves just like any public market, and it is easy for the traders to get spooked with incremental poll data.

Chhugani also highlighted the bipartisan consensus on the need for regulatory clarity, noting Trump’s favorable stance on crypto policies and Harris’s support for crypto ownership, albeit with fewer specifics. He added that mining regulations could play a role in attracting investors, as “mining is expected to thrive,” contributing to growth beyond the AI sector.

Bernstein analysts further anticipate Wall Street’s role in bitcoin will soon eclipse that of its pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, as the primary holder by the end of 2024. Leading asset managers with large stakes in bitcoin through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are driving this shift. Bernstein described this institutional surge as a “watershed moment,” which has solidified structural demand from traditional capital markets and spurred bitcoin’s growth trajectory.

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