The trading volume of CME options on bitcoin futures has increased ahead of the U.S. election, with some large trades suggesting that institutional investors are preparing for significant price moves in the days after Americans go to the polls on November 5.
Arbelos Markets CEO Joshua Lim told The Block that sizable derivatives trades are betting on bitcoin’s price surging above $85,000 by the end of November. Lim cited one example: a purchase of 3,050 bitcoin units in options set to expire on November 29, with a strike price of $85,000. This trade involved a $4.6 million premium, with $173,000 of vega and $42 million of delta — suggesting that if bitcoin’s price approaches or surpasses the $85,000 mark, the value of these options could quickly increase. The high premium indicates institutional traders are confidently wagering that bitcoin’s price will exceed the $85,000 strike by the end of November.
"CME bitcoin options have experienced some of its largest volume days ever, ahead of the U.S. election. There has been very bullish positioning going into the election, and it is great to see institutions sizing up like this on CME, which is perhaps a good sign that there is and will be growing liquidity in the crypto derivatives markets as the asset class matures," Joshua Lim said.
The trading volume of CME options on bitcoin futures has increased sharply over the past days. Image: CME
According to Lim, bitcoin is increasingly seen as both an inflation hedge and a proxy for the U.S. presidential election, particularly in the event of a Donald Trump victory. "The options market is pricing a 7% move on the U.S. election day, which feels a touch low relative to bitcoin's beta to risk assets," he said.
In the lead-up to the election, Donald Trump is widening his lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in blockchain-based betting markets. Currently, Trump holds a 64.5% chance of winning on Polymarket, compared to Harris's 35.4%.
Bitcoin open interest-weighted funding rate increases to multi-month high. Image: Coinglass.
In the futures market, strong open interest in perpetual contracts — currently at annual highs — signals market positioning for potential further gains. The bitcoin open interest-weighted futures funding rate spiked to 0.0153% in the past 24 hours, a high not seen since early June, CoinGlass data shows.
Bitcoin is currently changing hands at $72,500, according to The Block's Price Page. The global cryptocurrency market cap today is $2.54 trillion, a 1.9% decrease in the last 24 hours, according to Coinglass data.
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