Arthur Hayes, Bitmex’s founder and former CEO, published a blog post on Monday projecting that China’s quantitative easing measures could trigger a seismic bitcoin rally. Hayes argued that China’s massive monetary intervention, aimed at reflating its banking and property sectors after a historic real estate collapse, will ultimately push bitcoin prices higher.
Emphasizing that bitcoin’s value grows as fiat currencies are devalued through stimulus and government interventions, he described:
As long as fiat money is created, bitcoin will soar. It doesn’t matter who the ultimate recipient is.
Hayes explained that China’s property crisis and resulting reflationary policies have laid the groundwork for an unprecedented expansion in credit, which he predicts will flow indirectly into bitcoin markets.
“That means that bitcoin will soar on a secular basis as China reflates its banking system and property sector,” he wrote. “Given that the Chinese property bubble was the largest in human history, the amount of yuan credit created will rival the sum of dollars printed in the U.S. in response to COVID in 2020-2021.” With expectations of such large-scale fiat expansion, Hayes opined:
Such an alarm might inspire investors to choose bitcoin as a store of value over stocks or property.
Despite China’s crackdown on bitcoin exchanges, Hayes noted that “while the exchanges were barred from offering a visible bitcoin/CNY trading pair, bitcoin and crypto still flourishes in China.” The former Bitmex executive added: “Given that the Chinese government knows it cannot ban bitcoin, and bitcoin and crypto ownership is not banned in China (contrary to what some misinformed financial media say), Beijing would rather it be out of sight and out of mind.”
With his firm belief that bitcoin performs best under currency debasement, Hayes concluded:
No major risky asset class outperforms the debasement of the currency like bitcoin does. Investors instinctively know this, and when it comes time to think about how to safeguard the purchasing power of your savings, bitcoin will be staring back at you like the Kwisatz Haderach.
He tempered expectations for an immediate rise, cautioning that “PBOC QE and a re-acceleration of banking credit growth will take time. It takes time for chemo to kill the patient.” However, he foresees a long-term bitcoin upswing, predicting that “when the average wealthy coastal living Zhou decides they must have bitcoin at any yuan price, the upside price volatility will harken back to August 2015, when, after a shock yuan devaluation by the PBOC, bitcoin went from $135 to $600 – an almost 5x pump in under 3 months.”
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