The native cryptocurrency of data availability blockchain Celestia (TIA) braces for volatility due to its massive supply event on October 30, which will nearly double the number of tokens in circulation.
Some 175 million of previously locked-up TIA, 80% of the current supply, will be released on Wednesday, in the largest single unlocking event since the token was launched last October, Tokenomist data shows. That's $920 million worth of tokens with prices slightly above $5 on exchanges.
Core contributors are scheduled to receive 58 million ($298 million) TIA tokens, per Tokenomist. 65 million ($332 million) tokens are allocated to early investors of the project's series A and B funding rounds, with another 52 million ($268 million) tokens for seed investors.
Cryptocurrency projects often lock a part of the token’s supply and release it gradually to prevent early investors and insiders from selling in large quantities immediately after they get the allocations. When the tokens are unlocked, they become available to sell, and thus, such events are usually considered bearish; often they induce price drops. However, sometimes investors front-run and may sell before the unlocking happens.
Read more: Large Crypto Token Unlocks Drive Prices Lower Within Two Weeks, Research Suggests
In TIA's case, prices have tumbled as much as 80% from the February peak of $21, and have consolidated in the $4-$6 range for multiple months. Meanwhile, funding rates for TIA perpetual futures sit in deeply negative territory, reaching a -90% annualized rate on crypto exchange Binance, CoinGlass data shows. This suggests traders are expecting declining prices or TIA holders are hedging their exposure leading into the unlock.
"There could be some pronounced effects," David Shuttleworth, partner at Anagram, told CoinDesk, noting that the amount of tokens being unlocked is multiple times larger than the average daily trading volume between $50 million and $200 million over the past month. "The broader timing, however, is favorable," he added, with bitcoin (BTC) trading near all-time highs and other majors including ether (ETH) and solana (SOL) also performing well.
Given the broad crypto market rally, the probability of TIA surprising traders with a rally following the unlock has increased, according to well-followed crypto analyst Will Clemente, founder of Reflexivity Research.
"This BTC price action has further slid the probability of Thursday's TIA unlock being bearish towards 'no,'" Clemente said in an X post.
"6 months of reaccumulation after 80% drawdown, ton of OTC volume, most widely telegraphed unlock in crypto history, 9 figs [figures] short, BTC nearing ATHs," he added. Am long rn."
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