Morgan Stanley analysts Monica Guerra and Daniel Kohen examined the potential market impacts of the 2024 U.S. presidential election in a recent note, citing mixed economic signals and heightened investor uncertainty.

They explained that fluctuating consumer sentiment and sustained high prices are influencing voter perspectives, while traditional market indicators offer no clear forecast on the election’s outcome. Despite these factors, Guerra and Kohen argued:

While political outcomes and corresponding policy shifts may impact company profitability, the business and economic cycle are likely to be more relevant to market performance.

They recommended that investors stay focused on long-term strategies instead of reacting to election-driven market shifts.

The analysts warned that the potential for delayed election results could lead to heightened volatility. They described: “Delayed election results introduce a period of uncertainty and speculation, which historically has resulted in elevated levels of short-term market volatility.” With tight polling in key swing states and the variable timing of mail-in ballot counts, the final results could take days or even weeks, potentially sparking significant market turbulence.

Looking ahead, Guerra and Kohen detailed: “We expect a contentious final sprint to Election Day as campaigning accelerates, proposals sharpen and competition increases for swing-state voters. An unexpected political event or revelation, known as an ‘October surprise,’ could marginally sway the election in either direction, and mail-in voting and staggered ballot counting, as well as the sheer tightness of the race, could leave the election result undetermined for some time and drive heightened market volatility.” The analysts concluded:

Investors should keep their long-term objectives in mind during such periods.

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