Author | defioasis

Editor | Colin Wu

Note: This article is intended for sharing thoughts and should not be considered as any investment advice.

The emerging Meme master Muard mentioned at the Token2049 in Singapore that Crypto has entered a Memecoin Supercycle, and this live-streamed video has sparked significant attention and shares across the internet. In the crypto market, Memecoins have become an investment direction that cannot be ignored. However, whether the value of Memes themselves is genuinely recognized by the public remains a matter of differing opinions among investors, especially traditional investors who may view it as akin to gambling. This article will explore the investment value of Memecoins and the logic behind them based on personal observations and understanding of the Meme market.

Understanding Memecoin Value from the Perspective of Attention

Memecoins are a manifestation of the attention economy, representing the monetization of attention. Modern society is in an era of information overload, where attention has become an extremely scarce resource. Similar to when we scroll through TikTok or Twitter, people's attention is constantly dispersed among a massive flow of information. Memes, through their unique cultural symbols, humorous expressions, and even fervent religious-like qualities, successfully attract and consolidate public attention, while Memecoins are the monetized expression of this attention, linking public enthusiasm and market speculation with capital flow.

The so-called success of Memecoins does not rely on technology or applications; as Muard stated in his speech about the Memecoin supercycle, a Memecoin is a product in itself, rather than a token issued because there is a product. This distinguishes Memecoins from other so-called value coins and governance tokens. As a product, it relies on social media, particularly the dissemination on Twitter and TikTok. When more and more people discuss the same Meme, this attention creates a snowball effect, accumulating public attention and attracting more users, short-term investors, and market speculators, even so-called whales.

Furthermore, the success of Memecoins is closely related to investors' FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) psychology. During the dissemination of Memecoins, the massive attention also accumulates FOMO psychology. When a Memecoin suddenly becomes a hot topic and its token price surges, investors often experience anxiety about missing out on a significant investment opportunity. A prime example of this is BOME, which launched on Binance and saw a massive price increase within three days.

Memecoin Lifecycle

The essence of Memecoins is based on attention, which is extremely unstable. Therefore, the rapid shift of market attention also means that the value of Memecoins can collapse in an instant. In response to this uncertainty, different investors have different strategies. I broadly categorize the lifecycle of Memecoins into three stages: PvP stage, consolidation stage, and listing on major exchanges stage.

In the PvP stage, which typically does not exceed the first three days after the birth of a Memecoin, and may even last only a few hours, investors usually adopt a small position lottery mentality, entering and exiting the market quickly to seek short-term opportunities, which is generally suitable for degenerate players. Degen players typically possess strong short-term trading skills, adept at using various monitoring tools, and are highly sensitive, often staying up all night, essentially seizing opportunities that arise during the flow of attention. A simple example is catching Elon Musk's tweets or those from super influencers, then using keywords to scan the blockchain. The investment risk in the PvP stage is extremely high because once the focus of attention shifts or lacks sustainability, it can easily turn into a game of "who runs faster."

The second stage is the consolidation phase, which lasts for a considerable time after the PvP stage. Based on observations and my own thoughts on Memecoin investments, I believe that a successful Meme, or a Memecoin that can attract significant investment, is never just a game of speed; there will be enough time to lay low, and the community will have more time to settle. During the consolidation phase, the original intent and narrative of Memecoin speculation will become the focus of investors. Memecoins with strong narratives and resistance to imitation are more likely to regain market attention in the future. Additionally, support from secondary exchanges is an important signal, as it provides a crucial venue for market makers without needing to establish a new similar Memecoin from scratch.

The third stage is listing on major exchanges, such as Binance, Coinbase, and Upbit. This stage does not mark the end of a Memecoin's lifecycle but rather opens a new phase, entering the mainstream/sub-mainstream. After being listed on major exchanges, the security of Memecoins is significantly enhanced, and they no longer face such intense survival crises, instead waiting for the nurturing of liquidity in a bull market.

Memecoin vs VCcoin

Compared to VCcoins, Memecoins have become a more mainstream investment method at this stage, simply put, due to the wealth effect. Other sectors and value coins are not profitable, while Memecoins are relatively lucrative.

Since the beginning of this year, VCcoins have faced widespread criticism, which can be categorized into three main points. First, the issue of squeezed valuation space between primary and secondary markets; second, the airdrop problem; and third, the fatigue of narratives and the repetitive wheel-reinventing problem.

Firstly, high FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) and low circulation have left secondary market investors in distress. Most projects launched on major exchanges now have a market cap of 1-2 billion after opening, with FDV in the tens or even hundreds of billions. This leads to continuous unlocking and selling pressure, leaving no space for secondary investors. A notable comparison is that when the once-popular Stepn launched on Launchpool, its GMT market cap was only 100 million dollars, and it took a 20-fold increase to reach a 2 billion market cap. Nowadays, hardly any project launches with a market cap of only 100 million or less, and the hype generated by projects is far from what Stepn achieved.

Airdrops have become a very contradictory issue. Projects need to attract yield farmers to boost valuations but are reluctant to distribute more tokens to these yield farmers, as airdrops essentially allocate tokens to insiders or those who benefit insiders. Whether for project parties, large holders/institutions, or exchanges, retail investors are in a disadvantaged position. As the golden age of yield farming has passed, the era where the public reaped substantial rewards has also ended, with more studios and sybils emerging, and the relationship between project parties and retail/yield farmers deteriorating, making the profitability of yield farming precarious. Rather than putting in effort with little reward, it is understandable that many prefer to speculate in the Memecoin market.

The third pain point is the fatigue of narratives and lack of innovation. The various public chains are not fundamentally different in what they build; they are merely reinventing the wheel. There are many infrastructures, but few applications. Reinventing the wheel essentially leads to a continuous fragmentation of liquidity.

Although Memecoins also have many so-called conspiracy groups and hidden whales, at least their relationship with users is not so adversarial. Whether retail investors, project parties, or even so-called whales, the common goal is to expand capacity. Moreover, the main advantage is that users have the opportunity to enjoy the valuation space that has been squeezed by VCcoins, with chances to gain from the primary market on-chain. Although the difficulty of obtaining this is increasing, there is still hope, unlike VCcoins, which are completely squeezed with no opportunities. Of course, if you are a degen player, you can also engage in PvP, make a quick profit, and not worry too much about these issues.

Old Memecoin vs New Memecoin

From the perspective of attention, the development paths of old and new Memecoins are actually not that different. Even the largest market cap Memecoin, DOGE, saw price increases when Musk frequently promoted it a couple of years ago. Now, old Memecoins listed on major exchanges do not require as much instantaneous attention to stimulate their growth due to their large market cap, and their communities are substantial enough to continuously attract external attention.

Of course, new Memecoins have also given rise to many different ways of play. Firstly, the angle of speculation has become more diverse, truly becoming a "Meme for everything," no longer limited to cats and dogs, but also including zoos, celebrity coins, political coins, and more recently, emoji coins, with even super influencers like Muard's holdings becoming a point of speculation. Secondly, various pump tools have emerged, with very low costs for issuing coins, leading to an increasing speed of new Memecoin creation, allowing many to launch similar names, competing over timing and capitalization, with Memecoins competing against each other. Additionally, competition between different chains is intensifying, with Solana and Ethereum being the most obvious, along with earlier Base and Tron, and recently, Sui Memecoins also gaining popularity.

However, fundamentally, they have not deviated from the framework of attention; they are merely engaging in more dissemination differentiation and competition within this framework.

Envisioning the Development Direction of Memecoins

Vitalik has mentioned that he sells ETH or frequently sells the Memecoins given to him by the community for charity. Thus, the role of Memecoins in supporting charitable causes may become an important development direction in the future. Memes inherently possess strong social dissemination capabilities, and Memecoins could potentially become a tool for funding social activities or charitable projects. Based on this direction, communities may evolve beyond mere grassroots promotion or slogans, potentially transforming into social welfare organizations to engage in offline charity or goodwill movements.

Of course, the most important aspect of Memes or Memecoins is to maintain a certain purity, simply to evoke laughter and joy. If they return to building chains or applications, it seems to stray from the original intent of Meme development. However, this is just my personal speculation and viewpoint.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。