European Central Bank (ECB) economists Ulrich Bindseil and Jürgen Schaaf published a paper titled “The Distributional Consequences of Bitcoin” last week. They argued that bitcoin, though considered a revolutionary investment, may contribute to impoverishment, with its rising price benefiting early adopters and potentially disadvantaging much of society.

The authors explained that the shift in bitcoin’s role from Satoshi Nakamoto’s original vision— a global digital currency — to a speculative asset has led to detrimental consequences for the economy. Claiming that the gains reaped by early investors are essentially taken from those who did not or could not invest early, the paper states:

If the price of bitcoin rises for good, the existence of bitcoin impoverishes both non-holders and latecomers.

BTC’s rise in value, according to the paper, does not enhance economic productivity or growth, meaning it doesn’t create new wealth; rather, it simply redistributes existing wealth in favor of those who got in early.

This redistribution, the authors detailed, is not a relative loss, where some lose money only due to poor timing. Rather, they believe it is an “absolute” loss, wherein even those who never participated in bitcoin investments suffer economically. The gains of the first wave of bitcoin holders are directly tied to the diminished wealth and consumption capacity of others. As the price of bitcoin skyrockets, it does not benefit society as a whole; it enriches a minority, while stripping away the purchasing power of those outside the bitcoin bubble, they noted. This effect is particularly stark for the “latecomers” — those who entered the bitcoin market when prices were already high — and for non-holders, who lose out entirely.

The paper also suggests that bitcoin’s rising value threatens societal stability and could harm democracy itself. The authors warned:

The consequences of the bitcoin-as-an-investment vision with perpetually increasing bitcoin prices imply a corresponding impoverishment of the rest of society, endangering cohesion, stability, and ultimately democracy.

As more wealth is concentrated in the hands of a select few, social divisions could deepen, creating economic discontent among the majority who have been effectively priced out of the market or failed to profit from it.

In their analysis, Bindseil and Schaaf argue that bitcoin has failed to live up to its original promise of decentralizing finance and providing a better payment system for the world. Instead, its speculative nature and lack of productivity-enhancing capabilities have led to a zero-sum game where early investors accumulate wealth at the expense of the broader population. The “Lamborghini” and “Rolex” symbols of success enjoyed by early bitcoin investors come at a heavy cost to those who did not or could not get in early. In essence, the paper portrays bitcoin not as an innovative tool that expands wealth, but as a mechanism for wealth extraction from the many to the few, worsening inequality and leaving vast segments of society worse off.

Reactions to the ECB paper were strong on social media, with many Bitcoin proponents viewing it as an attack on the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin analyst Tuur Demeester criticized the paper, describing it as a “declaration of war.” He suggested authorities might use this argument to justify harsh BTC taxes or bans. Some slammed the ECB, noting its role in reducing Europeans’ purchasing power by 30% over the past two decades. Others pointed out they are both early and late adopters, having expanded their BTC holdings recently. X user Chartbtc commented: “Turns out the real cause of the Titanic’s sinking wasn’t the iceberg, but the lifeboats! ECB: Bitcoin impoverishes the world by giving people a lifeboat from the sinking fiat ship.”

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