The Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center published a paper on Thursday titled “Can the Digital Ruble Shield Russia From Western Sanctions?,” authored by Alexandra Prokopenko, a Fellow at the Center and former adviser at the Central Bank of Russia. The Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center is a research and policy institute focused on analyzing political, economic, and social developments in Russia and the broader Eurasian region.

The paper, produced jointly with the German Council on Foreign Relations, explores whether the digital ruble could shield Russia from the effects of Western sanctions, particularly in the aftermath of the 2022 Ukraine invasion. It analyzes how Russia’s pursuit of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) could offer alternatives to international payment systems like SWIFT, from which Russia was excluded due to sanctions. While the digital ruble could facilitate trade with countries like China, major hurdles remain before it becomes widely adopted.

Russia’s digital ruble project, which began in 2020, has progressed rapidly with real-world tests involving banks, but it faces challenges such as public distrust and concerns over surveillance. Prokopenko noted:

Crucially, the digital ruble will not accrue interest in these wallets, distinguishing it from traditional savings mechanisms. Consequently, the digital ruble’s primary utility lies in facilitating settlements rather than serving as a savings instrument.

“This delineation raises questions about its categorization as true ‘money’ in the traditional sense, positioning it more as a monetary means of payment,” she noted.

The Bank of Russia aims for full integration of the digital ruble by 2025, but public hesitation, especially about “complete de-anonymization of transactions” and the government’s potential control over private spending, remains a significant barrier, Prokopenko described.

Internationally, Russia lags behind China in CBDC development. While China’s digital yuan is already widely used, Russia risks deepening its dependence on Chinese technology and infrastructure, Prokopenko explained. She pointed out that “the digital ruble’s main appeal appears to lie in potentially mitigating the risks posed by international sanctions,” yet it is unclear if other BRICS nations will follow Russia’s lead in shifting away from Western-dominated financial systems. Although the BRICS Bridge platform could offer a non-SWIFT alternative, it does not immediately threaten the dominance of the U.S. dollar.

She detailed:

Of course, BRICS+ is not in a position to undermine the dominance of the U.S. dollar in the global financial system in the near term. And while the issue of cross-border payments may be critical for Russia, China’s leaders are not terribly preoccupied by the fact that the threat of secondary sanctions is affecting the behavior of their country’s financial institutions — at least for now.

Despite these efforts, the digital ruble’s success remains uncertain. Prokopenko concluded that “a CBDC is not a panacea for circumventing sanctions,” and Russia faces both technical challenges and skepticism from financial institutions. The paper underscores that while the digital ruble could eventually reduce Russia’s reliance on Western financial structures, its widespread adoption will require overcoming significant domestic and international obstacles.

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