In its latest review, QCP Capital spotlighted bitcoin’s (BTC) climb from $62,000 to $65,000, fueled by the liquidation of nearly $80 million in leveraged short positions across bitcoin and ether (ETH). While some have pointed to the postponed Mt Gox repayment as a driving factor, QCP analysts urge a broader view, suggesting that this rise could also be linked to historical trends observed in previous U.S. election years.

QCP’s report draws parallels between today’s market activity and the run-up to the 2016 and 2020 U.S. elections. In both cases, bitcoin stayed within a narrow trading range before rallying significantly around three weeks ahead of Election Day. In 2016, the cryptocurrency doubled in value from October to January, while in 2020, the price leaped from $11,000 to $42,000 during the same time frame. Now, the firm questions if this recent uptick might be the start of a similar election-driven trend, especially since enthusiasm for “Uptober” has been fading.

Despite bitcoin’s modest 1.2% rise in October so far—well below its typical 21% gain for the month—QCP analysts remain cautiously optimistic. They highlight the upcoming U.S. election, coupled with the recent rally, as potential triggers for more upward momentum. However, they also acknowledge that various macroeconomic factors, including inflation and regulatory changes, could shape the market in unexpected ways.

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