Peter Brandt, a prominent trader and chartist, discussed the concept of “market analogs” on social media platform X on Friday, specifically focusing on bitcoin’s price trends. He pointed out that BTC has now gone 30 weeks without reaching a new all-time high (ATH).
Drawing on historical data, Brandt emphasized that whenever bitcoin has failed to reach a decisive ATH within such a time frame, the market has typically faced a steep decline, seeing losses of 75% or more. Brandt’s observation is a cautionary message for bitcoin investors, as historical trends indicate a substantial price decline could occur if the cryptocurrency fails to hit a new all-time high.
Market analogs involve comparing current market conditions or price patterns with similar historical ones. Traders and analysts use these comparisons to predict future market movements, assuming patterns tend to repeat. By identifying analogs, they seek insights into potential future price trends or corrections based on past market behaviors. In a follow-up post, the trader clarified:
Just making an observation. Bitcoin is the largest single tradeable asset in my net worth. He who cannot look both ways usually ends up in a car accident.
The veteran trader shared his bitcoin outlook on Wednesday in another post on X, offering a broad analysis of BTC’s price trends. He explained that bitcoin’s significant price gains often come in the latter part of its four-year halving cycles, where mining rewards are reduced.
Despite a temporary market pause, especially since March 2024, Brandt remains optimistic about bitcoin’s performance, setting a target of $135,000 by August or September 2025. However, he also warned that a close below $48,000 would invalidate his analysis and require a reassessment of the market. He remains bullish overall but recognizes the risks if key support levels are breached. The renowned trader described:
My target is $135,000 in Aug/Sep 2025 … Close below $48K negates my chart analysis.
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