How I went from an outspoken bear to an omega bull in 2023:

In March 2023, I was still adamant that the U.S. would experience a recession and went as far publishing my thesis called "the earthquake effect".

Less than a month after the banking "crisis", nothing happened.

Instead, credit spreads fell (indicating a lack of panic).

Treasury yields ticked higher (indicating a lack of panic).

The Nasdaq-100 ripped higher (indicating a lack of panic).

So I had a choice...

I could acknowledge the objective data that suggested "everything is going to be okay".

Or, I could dig my head into the sand, be afraid to change my mind, and scream for a recession.

I chose the former.

Of course, it wasn't that simple.

Asset prices had already been trending higher for 3-5 months. The 3 major U.S. indices had broken above their 200-day moving average cloud.

New highs were expanding.

New lows were contracting.

Again, if investors were concerned, why would they be bidding asset prices higher?

The short answer is, they wouldn't.

So was the market wrong?

Or was my recession call wrong?

Thankfully, I've been involved with markets for long enough so I've learned that it's best to give the market the benefit of the doubt. At the end of the day, it's the most efficient and effective forward pricing mechanism that we have.

Does it make mistakes?

Of course it does.

But no indicator is 100% effective.

So, I started from scratch (sort of).

In November 2022, I had already acknowledged that soft landing probabilities were rising amidst a disinflationary environment.

So 5 months later, the data had continued to trend in that direction... and I had another choice to make...

Do I ignore the resilient and dynamic nature of the economy, the labor market, and the consumer and speculate that catastrophic weakness would arrive?

Or would I acknowledge the surprisingly resilient data, on the aggregate, and give the market the credit that it deserved?

Fundamentally, objectively, and intellectually, I had to change my mind.

I had to align with the trend.

I had to abandon my prior beliefs, based on data.

And here's the beautiful thing... I'm not married to ANY narrative. I've exhibited an ability to shift and adapt based on data so that I can align with key trends and market dynamics.

As an investor, you have two choices...

You can fight trends or align with them.

So I do everything that I can to align with them.

If/when there is material and substantive evidence that macro data is changing or that the bull market is weakening, I will be unafraid to change my mind.

That's exactly what I did in 2022. A bunch of bulls blocked me and grew irritated of my short-term bearishness (despite the fact that I was posting long-term bullish signals in the 2nd half of 2022).

Then I flipped again in April 2023 and I've been on the bullish team since then.

Here we are, ~18 months later, and a bunch of bears have blocked me.

I almost take pride in the fact that I have the ability to upset both cohorts of "analysts".

There will be a day when many of you dislike me because my views don't align with yours. Like when I pissed off the #Bitcoin mining community because I said MicroStrategy $MSTR was a superior investment.

How'd that work out for them?

I'll tell you how that worked out for me: very well.

Like extremely well.

But rest assured, one day, I will be very bearish.

You probably won't like that version of me, especially if you started following me in the past 18 months.

Luckily for you, today is not that day and I don't believe it will come for quite some time.

Glad to have you all on this crazy ride with me.

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