Host: Fraokh; Tyler; Mando; @FOMOHOUR
Guest: Murad Mahmudov
Original text compiled by: zhouzhou, BlockBeats
Editor's note: In this article, Murad shares how he entered the cryptocurrency space and gradually formed his own Meme investment thesis. He discusses how to choose Memes, why he believes Memes launched in 2023 will perform better, and how he tests and validates his investment strategies. Murad emphasizes the connection between NFTs and Memes, believing that Memes will see significant upside potential in 2025, and argues that belief is more important than short-term trading.
TL;DR:
Murad's Crypto Journey: He was introduced to crypto while studying in China, believing that 2025 will be a huge opportunity year for the crypto space, especially for Memes, which in some ways serve as a counterattack against VCs.
Meme Investment Strategy: He recognized the potential for a Meme explosion but noted that building a belief system takes at least seven to eight months, so he thinks Memes in 2023 will be the biggest winners.
Exploring Meme Market Trends: He looks for leaders in the Meme category, which have a long history, community, and appropriate market cap for better risk-reward ratios. Currently, Memes are still in their early stages, and anti-VC sentiment will be even stronger next year.
Thoughts on the Current NFT Development: Memes and NFTs are similar, but he believes Memes will have a larger scale, and future successful NFT projects will be those linked to Memes.
The following is the original dialogue (there are three hosts in the podcast, referred to collectively for readability; some content has been edited and compiled):
Murad:
This is not a trader's market; it's a believer's market. We no longer focus on technical analysis, range trading, or market timing. Regardless of market cap, top Memes from AC and Krypton could see increases of 30x, 50x, or even 100x. Everything seems like a mirage, elusive and hard to grasp.
Host: Our co-host Tyler is very fond of the list you provided and even did a special index analysis for it. We are now deeply entrenched in the illusion of FOMO, so I have a few questions to discuss with you. Personally, I would love to know more about your background and how you got to where you are today.
Murad's Cryptocurrency Journey
Murad: I am from Azerbaijan and later went to the United States for college. During that time, I spent a year studying in China, around late 2013 to early 2014, coinciding with the famous Bitcoin bubble of 2013, which was four years earlier than the 2017 bubble. I was fortunate to have a few foreign friends involved in the early Bitcoin ecosystem, which was my first exposure to Bitcoin.
By 2016, when Bitcoin and Ethereum were back in the spotlight, I had already started paying close attention and realized I needed to take cryptocurrency more seriously. Before that, I worked in commodities trading and logistics. Since 2017, I have done a lot in the crypto space, writing on-chain analysis articles, trading investments, and participating in the development of decentralized finance. In 2019, I founded a fund, but unfortunately, it did not perform well. Now, I am building a decentralized finance trading protocol called SDFX, a social finance trading protocol. Additionally, I have been involved in many Meme investments and trades, studying Memes from an on-chain and data analysis perspective.
Host: What does it feel like to be the "main character" now? Your interview at Token 2049 caused quite a stir; how do you feel about it now?
Murad: I try to face all of this with grace and humility. In fact, I believe we have 8 to 14 months of Meme frenzy ahead of us. Therefore, I tell my friends involved in Memes that we need to remain calm and patient, not to celebrate or act impulsively before 2026. I believe 2025 will be a huge opportunity year for the crypto space, especially for Memes, and we need to be prepared to seize this wave of opportunity.
Host: You shared your core ideas in your speech at Token 2049. How did you come up with this idea? How long did you prepare for it? Where did this thought originate?
Murad: Besides cryptocurrency itself, the external world is also changing. Inflationary pressures persist, and global money supply is increasing. Those familiar with Bitcoin extremist literature since 2015 or 2016 know that this affects people's mental health, financial markets, the nature of assets, trading methods, and even from a chemical to an emotional level. I believe all these factors also micro-influence the crypto market, which is why the mainstream altcoin narrative and core altcoin themes have become increasingly insane every four years.
So, it is not surprising that Memes dominate the market now, as we have seen this trend since around 2013 when altcoins first emerged. Back then, altcoins were all about using blockchain for this and decentralization for that. Now, nearly ten years later, I think people have begun to accept the harsh truth that the actual application scenarios of blockchain technology are far fewer than what is promoted.
However, some confirmed application scenarios, such as store of value, are Bitcoin's strong suit; payments, which mainly combine stablecoins and payment rails; and finally, various forms of speculation, all different types of speculation, whether at the application level or asset level, can be seen as the same thing. You can even view these tokens as tables in a casino. The reality is that Memes now reveal a dark truth: all the altcoins that ever existed have actually always been Memes; they were just dressed in Silicon Valley's clothing and branded with Silicon Valley's labels.
For example, we hire these distributed systems engineers, we have this GitHub, and that GitHub. But ultimately, the retail investors who truly drive prices up and exponential growth do not care about technology; they care about making money and entertainment. That is the core issue; everything is essentially a performance art, filled with manipulation and marketing, selling tokens worth $50 billion to people.
Therefore, Memes, in some ways, are a counterattack against this phenomenon, a populist backlash from the bottom up. Because in 2017, the poor could still get rich by buying ICOs; at that time, the initial trading prices of ICOs were relatively low. You could build a community step by step, turning the middle class into upper-middle class or making the poor wealthy. This process was organic, and even tokens like Chainlink and ByteDance had initial trading prices of only around $20 million or $15 million, which were still relatively affordable.
Frankly speaking, VCs have now privatized all the profits in this field. In private rounds, once a project has liquidity, its valuation can reach $15 billion. Clearly, in this case, you cannot build a real community. So people realize that if it is not a software issue, then the token itself is the core value, along with the community built around it.
I believe young people in their twenties to early thirties have realized that we do not need to buy VCs' tokens. They do not actually monopolize the creation of tokens, and the wave of Memes is essentially a powerful counterattack that began as a revenge against VCs. But my bolder view is that this trend will evolve into a larger and more significant phenomenon.
Meme Investment Strategy
Host: We basically agree on this; I think most people in the cryptocurrency space see it this way too. Just like when I entered the industry in 2021, most people in the crypto circle were talking about buying altcoins that could increase 100 times, but they did not realize that token economics meant they were actually fighting against an extremely powerful trend. So we all agree that the dominance of Memes will continue to rise.
As you said, the main use of cryptocurrency now is payments, and Bitcoin extremists compare it to "digital gold." Then there is speculation, and Memes occupy a large part as part of internet culture. So how did the interesting part begin? How did you choose these Memes? Once you decided that Memes were your focus, how did you move on to the next stage?
Murad: I quickly realized that platforms like Pump Fun would ultimately lead to a massive emergence of Memes, with almost everything having its own Meme. So in my mind, I felt it was necessary to conduct a thought experiment: let’s assume that in the future, everything will have its own Meme, like every color, every country, every Meme, every animal, every image, and even billions of Memes. On the supply side, these Memes are endless; on the demand side, let’s assume we give everyone in the world $2,000, and they must invest in two to three Memes.
Combining these two aspects, you start to simulate in your mind and ask yourself which Memes would prevail in such an environment.
You would find that about 70% of people might just gamble their money away, which can already be seen on platforms like Pump Fun. So what about the remaining 30%? Which ones will survive and be sustainable? Ultimately, it all comes down to the community and the people involved. My point is that what you really need is something filled with passion, even to the point of "fervor," to the extent that it becomes a movement, or dare I say, a micro-modern religion. These things resonate with people and ultimately become part of their identity. People become very invested, and it all relates to emotional resonance and inspiration.
Therefore, to identify which Memes will become giants in the future, you need to ask yourself: which Memes are more inspiring? Those that can inspire more people will reach higher market caps in 2025. Next, we can delve into some quantitative aspects, such as how to measure inspiration? How to measure emotion?
Host: I agree with your view. I actually created a Meme myself, and it quickly turned into a kind of religion; the development of these things can go quite smoothly. But I want to return to the list you mentioned earlier. When I first saw this list, I was actually a bit confused because it seemed you chose the coins with the fewest holders, which is quite different from the traditional approach to other Memes.**
And clearly, this is a long-term valuation list, and seeing it will evoke some reactions. But I feel like you seem to have discovered something that others haven't noticed, such as that religious factor, those diamond hands who will hold these coins for as long as possible, especially as we might be more focused on those relatively older coins. I looked through this list, and most of the coins are not newly launched; they were launched last year or have built communities for over six months. Now, these coins seem to show signs of rising.
Murad: I have some biases towards Memes from 2023 or even early 2024. I believe time is a very important factor; building a belief system takes at least seven to eight months, which is why I think Memes in 2023 will be the biggest winners. You need time for sellers to exit and for the supply of coins to concentrate in the hands of those who believe in a very high market cap. You see this with MOG in 2023, and I believe you see a similar situation with Harry Potter Bomb now, especially within the price fluctuation range. SPX has shown similar performance over the past year, and Giga will likely do the same in the first four to five months of 2024.
Building a belief requires time for the concept to resonate and gradually permeate society, and it also takes time for the supply to concentrate in the hands of true believers, rather than those who would sell for 3x or 4x returns. When the supply is in the hands of true believers, the supply issue is essentially resolved, and the next step is to address the demand issue. So whenever there is an influx of funds, the coin price will exhibit parabolic growth because these believers will not move their coins unless their targets are met—like a $100 billion market cap.
Whether you believe in this target or not is not important; what matters is the belief of the holders, as they are the ones making the decisions. So when people talk about belief, they are essentially referring to faith in the ultimate valuation, faith in friends, faith in the mission, and faith in this Meme movement. These are all things you need to delve into.
Host: So is your list static or dynamic? Do you plan to add or remove some coins from it? I know many people are concerned about this because whether or not this was your original intention, many people have already treated this list as the Murad list.
Murad: I now bear a significant responsibility; I do not want to be the kind of person who casually pushes coins. I spent 6 to 7 months almost in the trenches, using some small Twitter and Telegram accounts, diving into various Discord and Telegram groups to understand the atmosphere, culture, and crowd. So all my choices are well-considered and very faith-driven.
I am not sure if I will make any changes to this list, but I am very confident in it right now. One thing I have realized, which has already brought huge returns, is that this is not a trader's market; it is a believer's market. Believers are like investors on steroids, of course, this is a metaphor. Believers understand to forget about technical analysis, forget about range trading, forget about timing, and forget about rotation. If you think this cycle will be like the past three cycles, we may have already entered the fourth year. And in the fourth year, the performance of the fervent bull market obsessives will surpass everyone else.
Even the world's most complex quantitative traders cannot compare to those diamond-handed holders. Therefore, I firmly believe you should find a belief group that resonates strongly with you personally, and this resonance can also inspire millions globally; that is the winning formula. You should buy and hold for the long term. As I mentioned earlier, I believe there are still 8 to 12 months left, maybe even longer. I believe the top 10 or top 15 Memes will exhibit extreme parabolic growth. The core of my logic is to try to identify the leaders in each category; there are now different categories of Memes, and these categories will continue to increase.
Exploring Meme Market Trends
Host: I am trying to observe points in the Meme space, especially to dig into some niche markets. Can you elaborate on this?
Murad: Clearly, you have Dogecoin, which I think is now the leader. Then there’s Catcoin, and I believe Pop Cat is one of the leaders there. Then you have so-called cultural coins, and I think MOG is one of the leaders in that category. There’s also SPX, which I classify as a movement coin; this is a completely new category. And then there’s Giga, which combines lifestyle, culture, and masculinity. Additionally, there are other smaller categories.
My vision is that category leaders almost always have a better risk-reward ratio. Because whether it’s big whales entering the market or the flow itself getting involved, they will always choose the leaders in the category, so holding the leaders in each category is better. Those chasing "secondary leaders" or smaller versions of leaders will always lose because ultimately, this will turn into a player-versus-player competition.
Next, I think one of the most important concepts in Memes is the so-called "critical mass." Let’s say the critical mass is $200 million; simply put, if a coin can reach a $200 million market cap, it is likely to continue rising to $1 billion, or even $1.2 billion, $1.5 billion—there’s at least a significant probability of that happening. But if it doesn’t reach $200 million, it may decline and slowly wither away. Therefore, despite the thousands of Memes, it doesn’t matter because ultimately, you should only focus on the top 40 to 50 coins.
Host: The earliest Meme investment logic was to find a belief group, right? But I think what you really did was point out that they must reach a certain "age" to have enough maturity for people to feel this belief while making money. For example, some coins like MOG have risen by millions, but it takes a long time for them to transition to the right holders. Even if they can survive, you have to find that kind of religious "faith" in them.
You also need to find these niche markets, which is similar to the old altcoins. In the past, we had different categories of altcoins, and now Memes seem to be replicating this model but doing it better. Why buy game coins, DeFi coins, or other altcoin categories? They are often sold off by VCs, sometimes for months or even years. And I think these Memes have the potential to surpass them, even becoming more powerful than those with the largest market caps.
Murad: The narrative of the "huge rotation" from tech stocks to Memes is still in its early stages, and I think this situation will continue to occur next year. The anti-VC sentiment has not yet peaked; I believe this sentiment will only grow stronger, especially against those coins backed by VCs. You also need to understand that over the next four years, about $150 billion in unlocked funds will flow into some altcoin projects, which is like inflation. These investors will receive a large number of tokens and start cashing in their profits.
These VC investors are not the true believers you are looking for; rather, it is those truly fervent believers in a Meme community whose price movements will far exceed all technical factors. Ultimately, the essence of financial markets is human behavior and human belief. If you dive into it and participate in various group chats about these VC-backed tech coins and Memes, you will find that the supporters of Memes are a thousand times more passionate than those supporting tech coins. And what you are really betting on is that passion; what you are looking for is that passion. Once you find that passion, the funds will flow in, possibly in the millions or even billions.
Host: How do you test and validate your thesis? You mentioned using small accounts to enter Telegram and Discord groups to communicate with people. I want to know if there were any coins you initially thought would make it onto your list but later found through your deeper exploration that they were not suitable and ultimately did not make the cut? Were there any surprises during this testing and validation process?
Murad: I established a series of filtering criteria and then filtered out about 20 to 25 of what I call "belief groups" based on those criteria. So what are these filtering criteria? First, I do not want to buy the largest Memes because many have already been on major platforms like ByteDance, and they have already gone through significant catalytic events. I also do not want to participate in short-term speculative projects like "Pump Fund."
Gradually, I became increasingly clear that what ultimately matters is the relationship between price and attention, price and "religiosity," or price and passion. I believe the greatest value currently lies within mid-cap belief groups, and I focus on coins with market caps between $5 million and $200 million. I think this is a good range, which I broadly consider mid-cap coins.
The second point is that I prefer Solana and Ethereum over other chains. I know there are some projects on chains like Base, Ton, and Sui, but I believe the first significant driving force for these market caps will ultimately come from whales holding altcoins. But where will altcoin whales park their wealth? The answer now is Ethereum and Solana.
The ETH and SOL tokens they hold represent $70 billion and $300 billion in wealth, respectively, and there are also a lot of stablecoins there. Therefore, these chains act like large bank accounts. Once they truly understand that Memes will dominate the altcoin market in this cycle and next year, the flow of funds will be very rapid. This flow will drive us to see market caps of $100 million, $200 million, or even $3 billion. So, I focus on Ethereum and Solana.
Another focus is that when I filter projects, I mainly look for those that have been around for at least six months. Because in my view, building a belief or community is like an airplane taking off; before takeoff, the airplane needs to accelerate. In this example, acceleration is time; nothing can replace time.
Prices can be manipulated, short-term trading volumes can be artificially created, and even listings on centralized exchanges can be arranged artificially, but ultimately, time cannot be faked. Assuming our lifespan is 80 years, time itself is a very serious resource investment. If I see a Meme's market cap has been consolidating below $20 million for a year, it hasn’t exploded but also hasn’t died out, that is a signal worth paying attention to.
I know there is a core group of holders who are continuously dollar-cost averaging to absorb coins from those non-believers; that is exactly what I want to find. Personally, as you may have noticed, I have found the greatest success in projects with market caps between $10 million and $30 million, or $10 million and $40 million. I believe this is a sweet spot that can develop early belief groups without being too expensive. Over the past four to five months, I have personally found the most value in this market cap range.
Additionally, I hope that the Memes themselves are unique. I lean towards two types of things: first, "true" Memes like Giga and APU, which have been popular on platforms like TikTok and Instagram since 2016; second, those new projects that carry some kind of movement or religious atmosphere. Because for real Memes, people are already familiar with them; whereas for those with a movement nature, they can inspire a higher level of inspiration, which is more "quantifiable."
As you may have noticed, I really like projects that are as decentralized as possible. I want the supply of tokens to be decentralized overall, and also decentralized at the whale level. Some projects have their supply almost entirely controlled by a few large holders, with six people holding 75% of the supply; we all know these cases.
Host: You need to protect people from being hurt by these "kebab coins."
Murad: If you are a big whale now, or if you are a VC or institution considering getting into Memes, please hire an on-chain analyst or an on-chain quantitative analyst. Have them not only look at the overall metrics but also carefully analyze the earliest blocks, especially what happened in the first 100 blocks. Most importantly, focus on that kind of religiosity and inspiration. As I mentioned earlier, I also want the whale holding groups to be decentralized. So, I will pay attention to how many people hold less than 0.3% but more than 0.1% of the tokens, and then break down this data into different groups and holder structures. I hope they are balanced and appear organic. If you plot all this information into a huge matrix, you can see which coins are legitimate and which are not.
As I said before, you are investing in people. So, if you have this opportunity, you need to figure out who the leaders are, and even see if there really are leaders, what the decision-making process is like, who the biggest whales are, who is discussing this project on Twitter, and who is not.
In addition to all the quantitative factors I mentioned, you also need to feel the atmosphere and culture. Are these people sincere? Or are they just another speculative group that will quickly sell off the coins you hold? It is evident that you want to look for those with a long-term mindset, at least thinking in quarterly terms, preferably annually, rather than those who just want to make a quick 10x and sell off next week. Therefore, ultimately, you need to understand these people, understand their culture, and understand their Memes. Beyond all these mathematical indicators, this is the basis for forming your judgment.
What do you think about the current development in the NFT space?
Host: You recently posted about NFTs, right? You reposted that famous Murad list, including a section on NFTs. I really liked seeing the Bitcoin puppet in there, and of course, my Punk. What do you think about the current development in the NFT space? Many people say that this round of Memes is like the NFTs of the previous cycle. Do you agree with this view?
Murad: From a technical perspective, Memes and NFTs are the same kind of thing, but I believe the scale of Memes will be 50 times larger. The reason is simple: even in a successful NFT project, if you really calculate the numbers, you will find that about 3,000 to 4,000 people are promoting 10,000 illiquid JPEGs. In contrast, the situation with Memes is much more efficient; both sides are more optimized.
Instead of having 3,000 people promote 10,000 different illiquid JPEGs, it is better to have 500,000 people promote the same coin. From a liquidity perspective, you can see that this approach is much more economical and powerful, which is why you see crazier parabolic rises on top Memes than on BAYC or CryptoPunks. Memes and NFTs are fundamentally very similar, but the financial instruments expressing Memes are better and more efficient, which is also why the market cap of Memes will be 30 times, 50 times, or even 100 times higher than the peaks of BAYC and CryptoPunks.
In my view, the NFT projects that will perform well in this cycle will be those linked to Memes. Ideally, it is best to have a Meme first and then launch NFT collections, as this development is more natural, and the Meme will be prioritized.
The reason is as follows, which is also why I am very optimistic about Sprout Gram, the Eon project from Lens, Ricardo, and the upcoming ARPU NFT. I believe these four Memes will perform exceptionally well, and their market caps will reach billions of dollars. This means their communities will become very wealthy, and in the digital realm, this will become a huge social symbol—you are part of these communities.
Moreover, the "backbone" members of these Memes will all own one or more of these NFTs. I believe Project Eon, Sproto, Gramons, and Ricardo will become the Patek Philippe, Vacheron Constantin, and Audemars Piguet of the modern Meme movement, respected by many. I even think their floor prices could reach 50 ETH, and if the Meme frenzy really takes off, they could rise to a floor price of 100 ETH.
I know this sounds crazy right now, but if you do the math on illiquid assets—I know you saw similar situations at the end of 2021—their prices can change very quickly. Moreover, the human brain thinks linearly, and humans are not very good at understanding parabolic growth and exponential changes. I believe these NFTs, especially my favorites, such as the ones I mentioned—Programming, Project Eon, and Ritardia—will have huge potential in the future.
Host: Indeed, developments often turn out to be crazier than anyone expects. For example, the floor price of Bored Apes rose to $400,000 to $500,000 in the last cycle. Murad, I really like that you included Punks in your list; I think it adds authority to the whole discussion, and I agree with your views on Memes.
How do you plan to exit? Now that you have a sort of "belief group" status, everyone is paying attention to your plays, like the "MURAD Index." So, once you start selling, will everything collapse? Are you worried about that? Have you considered the situation 8 to 12 months or even 14 months from now? Will it be difficult to exit then?
Murad: I will definitely sell a portion by the end of 2025 or early 2026. For the SPX and Giga projects, I will definitely hold across multiple cycles because I believe they will exceed one cycle and continue to strengthen.
But the problem is that by mid-2025, there will definitely be a Meme valuation framework. People will start using Excel spreadsheets, quantitative analysis, and all social media data to determine which are overvalued and which are undervalued. Just like with altcoins, there will be periods of undervaluation and overvaluation, depending on how you set your entry and exit strategies.
I recommend that everyone use dollar-cost averaging (DCA) for both entry and exit, as it will be much better because it is hard to accurately time the market. Maybe you are skilled enough to pinpoint specific months or quarters. But overall, DCA for entry and exit is the most conservative approach. Over the long term, it performs much better than going all in or out at once.
Host: Mando, you made a lot of money on the Bored Apes project. What do you think of Murad's NFT theory?
Host Mando: I find it quite interesting because I actually think NFTs are inherently better suited for community building than Memes. I find that in NFT Telegram or Discord groups, the focus of discussion is often not just on price; people connect it more with personal identity.
In contrast, in Meme discussions, price is often the main topic. Although there are Meme conferences, there are no NFT conferences yet. Perhaps that will change, and the "belief" element you mentioned might take us there. But I do agree that in terms of market cap, Memes might go further than top NFT projects. Because the nature of Memes allows for thousands of holders, while an NFT project can have at most 10,000 holders. However, the truly core community is more like "SEAL Team Six," while the Meme community is more dispersed.
Murad: The success of NFT projects can sometimes become their own enemy because the floor price becomes so high that low-income groups cannot participate. Memes, on the other hand, can be participated in at any price point.
Host: How do you respond to those who question your views? We discussed at the beginning of the show that many people see you as a "protagonist," but some think everything you say is delusional or unfeasible. How do you deal with that?
Murad: I am very happy to let people think I am delusional because it means we are still in the early stages. If everyone agrees with my views, then there are no economic opportunities here. I welcome all criticism and questioning, and I even welcome being labeled as "delusional" because it only tells me that we have a much larger upside potential.
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