Global investment bank JPMorgan’s analysts have expressed optimism for the cryptocurrency market as bitcoin shows upward momentum heading into the fourth quarter. In a report released Monday, they cited October’s historical trend, noting bitcoin has delivered positive returns more than 70% of the time during the month.

They believe the market could follow a similar pattern this year, stating:

While previous performance is not a predictor of future performance, we think this popularization of ‘Uptober’ may influence behavior and result in a positive month for bitcoin this October.

The analysts pointed to several key developments that could support the crypto market. These include recent interest rate cuts and future planned cuts by the Federal Reserve.

However, they also cautioned that the expected positive impact has yet to materialize. “We have yet to see the ‘pop’ in cryptocurrency prices expected from lower rates since the Fed’s September 18 cut,” they noted. While rates may continue to decline, they detailed: “Crypto assets really only emerged in the early-to-mid 2010s, and rates were near zero for most of their existence. It’s possible that stable rates, rather than just low ones, will benefit these markets the most.”

The report also highlighted the potential impact of Blackrock’s spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) gaining options trading approval. The analysts explained: “With options, investors now have a more dynamic way to engage with the ETF and drive liquidity in the underlying asset,” suggesting this development could enhance market liquidity and structure.

Another development, Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade, is expected to improve network efficiency. However, the analysts noted: “While Pectra is expected to be transformational for Ethereum’s functionality, we view this upgrade as more structural than an immediate price catalyst.” Overall, they concluded:

We continue to see the crypto ecosystem being incrementally more sensitive to macro factors, so we await the next major catalyst for development and enhanced retail engagement to provide secular growth for the ecosystem.

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