Former President Donald Trump has the highest favorable odds of winning the U.S. presidential election since Kamala Harris was elected by the Democratic Party to run against him in early August. Bettors are giving Trump 53.8% odds he will secure the presidential nomination on Nov. 5, according to the latest stats on the decentralized prediction market.
For the past several weeks, both candidates have largely been neck-and-neck on Polymarket, an Ethereum-based platform where users can bet on the outcome of future events. Trump once again overtook Vice President Harris on Oct. 4 as the favored candidate and has seen his odds increase since.
However, in a separate market on the platform, Harris is strongly favored to win the popular vote with 72% of the voting total.
Some economic theorists and election watchers — including 538 founder Nate Silver, a Polymarket advisor — say prediction markets are a better way of aggregating information because users place money on the line.
With over $1.4 billion in cumulative trading volume riding on the election market, Polymarket has become the most popular site to wager who will win the U.S. presidential election.
The largest user on the site is the pseudonymous "Fredi9999," who has bet over $6 million on a Trump victory. There is some speculation this person is Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who has endorsed the former president and called prediction markets "more accurate" than polls.
Trump’s highest odds of winning the election stood above 70% in the days following his first assassination attempt, when he was still running against President Joseph Biden. The Republican nominee sometimes shares his favorable odds on social media.
Monday saw a boost to Trump’s odds following the release of recent polling out of Pennsylvania, a swing state where the number of Republican voter registrations outpaced Democratic voters.
On Polymarket, bettors currently put it at 55.5% odds that Pennsylvania will go red while Democrats are favored to win the purple state of Michigan. Voters put it at 33% odds that Pennsylvania will be the tipping point of the election.
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