As October approaches, the cryptocurrency community is eagerly awaiting what many hope will be a profitable month for bitcoin. Playfully dubbed “Uptober,” this month has historically provided strong returns, with gains recorded 81.82% of the time since 2013. Enthusiasts are optimistic that this pattern will persist, keeping the tradition alive. As of Sept. 29, 2024, bitcoin is priced at $65,707 per BTC, sitting just 11% below its all-time high of $73,737, set on March 14, 2024.

Polymarket bettors currently estimate a 61% chance that BTC will surpass its previous peak before the end of the year. The bet, which has generated $127,807 in volume, resolves to “yes” if bitcoin breaks the March 14 record before Dec. 31, 2024. While many are betting on bitcoin setting a new high, the odds of reaching $100,000 in 2024 are much lower. With $1,110,320 in wager volume, only 17% of bettors believe bitcoin will hit $100K this year.

The outlook is even more skeptical for a $250,000 target, with just a 3% chance according to a Polymarket wager with $772,483 in volume. Meanwhile, the bitcoin prediction blog hosted by changelly.com offers a far more optimistic (and possibly unrealistic) forecast for October. The Changelly blog predicts bitcoin will surpass its all-time high by Oct. 2, 2024, forecasting a price of $75,256 on that day.

Changelly further expects a low of $66,400 to kick off the month and projects bitcoin could climb to $89,246 by Oct. 28. This mix of cautious optimism and extremely speculative forecasts showcases bitcoin’s unpredictable path. Whether or not it surpasses its prior peak, the market remains fueled by both hope and data-driven strategies, as participants continue to track the charts, ever watchful for new opportunities.

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