A U.S. license allowing transactions with key players in Russia’s financial system expires on Oct. 12. This could make it harder and more expensive for Russian businesses to trade with China in yuan. The yuan is currently the most traded foreign currency in Russia after Western sanctions and Russia’s de-dollarization efforts. Chinese banks are wary of violating U.S. sanctions and the Russian central bank is hesitant to provide more yuan liquidity.
Importers fear a yuan shortage or Chinese banks refusing Russian payments altogether.
Expiry of the license could halt yuan conversion and open positions on the Moscow Exchange. This would further complicate Russia-China trade, which already faces delays and higher costs.

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