As of Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024, bitcoin is hovering just under the $66,000 mark. Despite September’s history of unfavorable returns, it looks like the top cryptocurrency could end the month on a high note. Data from coinglass.com reveals that before this year, BTC was down 72.73% of the time in September since 2013. If bitcoin closes the month in positive territory, that figure will improve to a more favorable 66.67%.
Following September comes October, affectionately dubbed ‘Uptober’ in crypto circles for its history of delivering impressive returns. As noted earlier, BTC has been in the green 81.82% of the time—nine out of the past 11 years since 2013. In 2013, BTC climbed 60.79%, but October 2014 saw a dip of 12.95%. The bounce back came in 2015 with a 33.49% gain, followed by a more moderate 14.71% increase in 2016.
During the 2017 bitcoin bull run, the leading cryptocurrency by market cap skyrocketed 47.81%, but 2018 brought the first drop since 2014, with BTC slipping 3.83%. From 2019 through 2023, October remained positive. In 2019, BTC gained 10.17%, and in 2020, it shot up 27.7%. The 2021 bull run saw a hefty 39.93% increase in October. Just before the FTX collapse in Nov. 2022, BTC posted a modest 5.56% gain in October.
Last year, 2023, proved to be another solid ‘Uptober’ as bitcoin rose by 28.52%. Historically, BTC tends to shine in Q4, with positive results 63.64% of the time since 2013. If bitcoin stumbles in the final quarter of 2024, that number will drop to 58.33%. However, if BTC wraps up Q4 in the green, the figure will rise to 66.67%.
Bitcoin’s performance in September offers a glimpse of what could lie ahead in Q4. With the stage set for ‘Uptober’ and bitcoin’s strong track record in October, market participants will be watching closely. As history suggests, the upcoming months could either solidify bitcoin’s momentum or challenge the cryptocurrency’s historical end-of-year strength, depending on market and macroeconomic conditions.
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