Financial giant JPMorgan Chase sees the potential for another significant rate cut this year, following its early prediction of the Federal Reserve’s recent half-point interest rate reduction on Wednesday.

Michael Feroli, the bank’s chief U.S. economist, reiterated his forecast for a possible 50-basis-point cut in November but noted that this outlook depends on upcoming jobs reports. Feroli had anticipated Wednesday’s cut since August and held his stance while others adjusted theirs. JPMorgan’s rate strategists expect Treasuries to remain steady until the September employment report provides more direction.

“We are still expecting a faster pace of rate normalization than the median dot,” Feroli wrote in a note to clients following the Fed’s decision. He emphasized that the next rate cut hinges on softer labor data:

Our expectation for a 50bps cut at the next meeting in early November is contingent on further softening in the two jobs reports between now and then.

“More benign labor data would, instead, seal the case for the FOMC’s goldilocks scenario of 25bps eases per meeting over the remainder of the year,” the economist added.

While JPMorgan holds firm, other Wall Street firms have adjusted their forecasts. Citigroup economists gave up their call for a half-point cut before this week’s meeting. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs, led by Jan Hatzius, anticipates a series of quarter-point cuts extending into mid-2025. They view the November decision as “a close call” depending on labor data.

Treasury yields dropped on Thursday, with two-year yields decreasing by four basis points to 3.58% and 10-year yields by one basis point to 3.69%. Traders are betting on further cuts from the Federal Reserve later this year.

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