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On July 22, the U.S. SEC officially approved the S-1 applications of multiple ETF issuers, and the Ethereum spot ETF was officially approved for listing and trading, starting at 9:30 am Eastern Time on July 23.
According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, the trading volume of the spot ETH ETF reached $112 million in the first 15 minutes of trading, which is a huge volume compared to the issuance of regular ETFs, but only half of the first-day trading volume of the BTC ETF group (excluding GBTC). Nevertheless, it still exceeded expectations. In the first 15 minutes, Grayscale ETHE had a trading volume of $39.7 million, Bitwise ETHW had $25.5 million, BlackRock ETHA had $22.5 million, and Fidelity FETH had a trading volume of $15.2 million, among others.
Major market maker Wintermute expects that the Ethereum ETF can receive a maximum of $4 billion in inflows from investors in the next year. This is lower than the $45 billion to $65 billion that most analysts had expected, and the latter is about 62% less than the $170 billion raised by the Bitcoin ETF since it started trading in the U.S. six months ago. Wintermute indeed expects that under the impetus of these inflows, the price of Ether will rise by 24% in the next 12 months.
Daniel Yan, founder of Kryptanium Capital and co-founder of Matrixport, tweeted that he still holds a contrary view on the ETH ETF, believing that ETH/BTC will actually decline in the coming weeks rather than rise. Reasons include people buying on rumors and selling on facts, and the net flow may be negative. He predicts that ETH/BTC will fall below 0.05 and stabilize between 0.0475 and 0.05.
U.S. regulatory agencies rejected the request of issuers to allow the Ethereum ETF to pledge the cryptocurrencies they hold. Wintermute stated in its report, "This loss reduces the competitiveness of the ETH ETF compared to direct holding, as investors can still benefit from pledging."
Will Cai, head of Kaiko Index, stated in a report that at the end of last year, the U.S. launched a futures-based ETH ETF, but the demand was not ideal. Everyone's attention is now focused on the launch of spot ETFs, with high hopes for rapid asset accumulation. Regardless of the long-term trend, the price of Ether may be "sensitive" to the inflow amount in the first few days. Implied volatility indicates a lack of confidence in the launch of the ETH ETF.
A report from Citibank stated that the net inflow of the Ethereum spot ETF may be equivalent to 30%-35% of the Bitcoin ETF, meaning that the potential net inflow amount of the Ethereum ETF in the next six months will reach $47 billion to $54 billion. However, due to the lack of pledging and the first-mover advantage of Bitcoin, the fund flow may be insufficient.
Grayscale stated that if the Ethereum (spot) ETF is approved, then nearly a quarter (25%) of potential (U.S.) voters will be more interested in investing in Ethereum.
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, stated that the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF may attract net inflows of $15 billion in the first 18 months after listing. He expects investors to allocate roughly according to the market value of the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs ($1.2 trillion and $405 billion), providing approximately 75% weight to the spot Bitcoin ETF and 25% weight to the Ethereum ETF. Currently, assets managed through the spot Bitcoin ETF exceed $50 billion, and Hougan expects this number to reach at least $100 billion by the end of 2025.
Cryptocurrency analysis company K33 Research estimates that the expected inflow amount of the upcoming spot ETH ETF in the U.S. in the first five months is $30 billion to $48 billion, which, at current prices, would be equivalent to accumulating approximately 800,000 to 1.26 million ETH in the ETF, accounting for approximately 0.7%-1.05% of the total token supply. K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde stated that this absorption of supply impact should lead to an increase in the price of ETH. In addition, K33 believes that the omission of pledging will not have a negative impact on the fund inflow of the ETF. Previously, JPMorgan predicted an inflow amount of $30 billion for the ETH ETF this year and believed that the omission of pledging would affect the inflow.
According to a report by Bernstein, the total market value of the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF market is expected to grow to $450 billion, indicating that over $100 billion will flow into crypto ETFs in the next two years. The brokerage previously predicted a high point of $150,000 for Bitcoin in 2025, with a year-end target price of $90,000. Furthermore, the report stated that Ethereum is the first PoS token approved as a spot ETF, which has a positive impact on other blockchain tokens, and Solana (SOL) may benefit.
Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra estimate that the approval of the spot Ethereum ETF will drive the price of Ethereum up by 75% to $6,600. They pointed out that the SEC approved a similar Bitcoin product in January, stimulating a 75% price increase in the following weeks, and they expect a similar change in the price trend of ETH. However, Kaiko analyst Adam McCarthy believes that there is not much demand for a Hong Kong ETH ETF, and it has experienced several days of net outflows. The lack of pledging is also an important factor and may further affect demand.
Geoffrey Kendrick, an analyst at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that cryptocurrency ETFs such as SOL and XRP may be approved in 2025. He believes that the approval of the ETH ETF means that Ethereum and similar cryptocurrencies will not be classified as securities. In addition, it is expected that the ETH ETF may bring in $15 billion to $45 billion in inflows in the first 12 months. Kendrick also predicts that the ETF will push ETH to the $8,000 level by the end of 2024.
Noelle Acheson, former Head of Market Insights and Researcher at Genesis Global Trading, stated that multiple indicators indicate that institutional interest in the Ethereum ETF is much lower than that in Bitcoin. Bloomberg industry research ETF analyst Eric Balchunas expects the Ethereum ETF to account for "10-15% of the assets of the Bitcoin ETF." The ETH futures ETF currently only accounts for 4% of the BTC futures ETF. As for the spot Ethereum ETF itself, existing data suggests that institutional interest may also be lacking.
In an earlier Wu's Blockchain Talk podcast, Winter Soldier, a lawyer, believed that when the Bitcoin ETF is approved, he believed that the Ethereum ETF would eventually be approved as well. The approval of the spot ETF requires two important conditions: a mature futures trading market and stability between spot and futures prices. This is also the reason why the Ethereum spot ETF was able to be approved smoothly after the Bitcoin ETF was approved. If Bitcoin can reach $100,000 in the future, then it is also possible for the price of Ethereum to reach $6,000 to $8,000. This prediction is relatively conservative, and the actual situation also depends on macroeconomic trends. The likelihood of a spot ETF for Solana is small due to the lack of a futures ETF and insufficient decentralization.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart stated in an interview that the demand for the spot Ethereum ETF may reach 20% to 25% of the demand for the spot Bitcoin ETF. James Seyffart pointed out that this prediction is based on the Ethereum market being about 30% of Bitcoin's market size. Limiting factors for the Ethereum ETF include the inability to pledge and the inability to utilize on-chain utility. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, predicted "huge demand" for the spot Ethereum ETF, with demand coming from diversified investments and interest in high-growth technology.
Cobo and F2pool co-founder Shenyu stated that in the early stage of the listing of the ETH ETF, the main inflow of funds may come from retail investors, accounting for 80-90% of the total funds, while institutional users participate less; after December, institutional investors may gradually enter the market.
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