1. Market Observation

Keywords: BONK, ETH, BTC

Trump will reach the 100-day mark of his second term on April 29, but his approval rating continues to decline to 39%, marking the lowest 100-day approval rating for any president in the past 80 years. Polls show that 72% of Americans believe his economic policies could trigger a short-term recession, 53% of respondents feel the national economic situation is worsening, and 41% feel pressure on their personal finances. The Trump administration's trade protectionist policies and tariff measures have exacerbated market volatility, with the S&P 500 index down about 8% since his inauguration, marking the worst 100-day performance since 1974; the dollar index has plummeted 9% during the same period, the weakest start since the Nixon era, with funds accelerating into gold and non-US assets. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is caught in a policy dilemma due to simultaneous inflation pressures and recession risks, with limited room for interest rate cuts, compounded by Trump's comments on central bank independence, further undermining market confidence. Wall Street strategists generally recommend reducing holdings in US stocks and dollar assets at highs, with Bank of America emphasizing that global capital allocation is shifting from "American exceptionalism" to diversified layouts, with gold and emerging markets becoming preferred safe havens.

Bitcoin recently broke through the key resistance level of $95,000, stabilizing above the 21-week moving average and holding above the $87,045 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, providing clear stop-loss references for bulls. Although Bitcoin recorded only a 43.4% increase after the halving in April 2024, significantly weaker than historical cycle performance, the strengthening of gold and the trend of diversifying dollar assets still endow it with long-term allocation value. Crypto analyst Willy Woo believes that the accelerated inflow of on-chain funds lays the foundation for breaking historical highs, with mid-term targets pointing to the $103,000 to $108,000 range. Citibank predicts that if the stablecoin market grows to $1.6 trillion under a baseline scenario, Bitcoin's price could reach $285,000 by 2030, and in an optimistic scenario, it could even rise to $475,000. Even under conservative assumptions, the price could double to over $190,000. However, analyst Ali warns that Bitcoin faces selling pressure from 1.76 million BTC across 2.61 million wallet addresses in the $94,125 to $99,150 range, and caution is needed during periods of weak market liquidity.

The Sui ecosystem remains hot, with its token SUI set to unlock 74 million tokens (accounting for 2.28% of circulation) on May 1, valued at approximately $267 million. Its ecosystem projects DeepBook, MemeFi, and Walrus have also seen significant increases recently, while Binance Alpha will launch its ecosystem project Haedal Protocol on April 29. Currently, SOL is still hovering around $150, with the ecosystem project PENGU experiencing a rapid increase of over two times in the past week. The new MEME token HOUSE briefly surpassed a market cap of $78 million but has since retreated to around $67 million. Additionally, leading meme project BONK announced yesterday the launch of the meme coin issuance platform Letsbonk.Fun, developed in collaboration with Raydium, which has already seen several million-dollar projects emerge, including Hosico, LetsBONK, and NOM.

2. Key Data (As of April 28, 12:00 HKT)

(Data Source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN, Letsbonk.Fun)

• Bitcoin: $94,179.39 (Year-to-date +0.5%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $17.72 billion

• Ethereum: $1,794.82 (Year-to-date -46.15%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $9.749 billion

• Fear and Greed Index: 54 (Neutral)

• Average GAS: BTC 1 sat/vB, ETH 0.4 Gwei

• Market Share: BTC 63.3%, ETH 7.3%

• Upbit 24-Hour Trading Volume Ranking: XRP, DEEP, TRUMP, JST, WAL

• 24-Hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 1.0153

• Sector Performance: NFT sector up 7.2%, PayFI sector up 5.78%

• 24-Hour Liquidation Data: A total of 95,737 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $173 million, including $25.99 million in BTC, $29.88 million in ETH, and $9.84 million in ALPACA.

• BTC Mid-Long Term Trend Channel: Upper Line ($90,816.14), Lower Line ($89,017.80)

• ETH Mid-Long Term Trend Channel: Upper Line ($1,733.27), Lower Line ($1,698.95)

*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower lines, it indicates a bullish trend in the medium to long term; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF Flows (April 21 to April 25)

• Bitcoin ETF: $3.06 billion (Second highest historical inflow)

• Ethereum ETF: $157 million (Ending 8 weeks of net outflows)

4. Today's Outlook

• Two Bitcoin reserve bills in Arizona will undergo a third reading on Monday and may proceed to a final vote

• MANTRA plans to burn 150 million OM from team token allocation on April 29, with these tokens set to unlock on this day

• Binance Alpha will launch Haedal Protocol (HAEDAL) on April 29

• Frax Finance will conduct a North Star upgrade on April 29, with Frax Share being renamed to Frax and serving as a gas token

• OKEx will delist five spot trading pairs including KISHU and MAX on April 29

Top 500 Market Cap Gainers Today: CSPR up 63.43%, UNP up 52.19%, PENGU up 44.23%, XMR up 22.61%, FWOG up 18.87%.

5. Hot News

• This Week's Preview | Trump's son Eric Trump to attend TOKEN 2049 in Dubai; Arizona's two Bitcoin reserve bills may undergo final voting

• Data: SUI, OMNI, OP and other tokens will see large unlocks, with SUI unlocking valued at approximately $267 million

• This Week's Macro Outlook: Super Data Week Approaches, Non-Farm Payrolls and PCE Coming Up

• Grayscale's GBTC Implied Annual Income Exceeds $268 Million, Surpassing the Total of All Other Bitcoin ETFs

• A whale holding 1.32 million SOL deposits 35,000 SOL into Binance, valued at approximately $5.07 million

• Ethereum Foundation Researcher Proposes to Increase Ethereum Gas Limit by 100 Times Over 4 Years

• ALPACA Plummets Over 50% Early This Morning, Currently at $0.1763

• Binance Alpha Will Launch Haedal Protocol (HAEDAL) on April 29

• Report: 45.4% of South Korean Investors Expect BTC to Outperform Gold in the Next 6 Months

• Binance TRUMP Spot Trading Volume Increased by 202% in 9 Days, Price Up 94.6% Over 9 Days

• A Whale That Staked for Over 2 Years Unstakes 17,481 SOL and Transfers Most to Kraken

• BONK Launches Meme Coin Issuance Platform Letsbonk.Fun

• Market News: IMF States El Salvador Has Stopped Using Public Funds to Invest in Bitcoin

• Analysis: Bitcoin Has Only Increased 43.4% Since the Fourth Halving, Far Below Market Performance After the Previous Three Halvings

• Analysis: If Citibank's Prediction of a Surge in Stablecoin Supply Comes True, BTC Could Rise to $285,000 by 2030

• Cryptocurrency Advocates Call for Swiss Central Bank to Include Bitcoin in Reserve Assets

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