The 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread (I:102YTYS) has been inverted since July 7, 2022, marking the longest period of inversion in U.S. history at over two years, surpassing the previous record of 624 days set in 1978. An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term bonds yield more than their long-term counterparts, reversing the typical financial landscape. This anomaly is often a foreboding indicator, signaling potential economic downturns. Given its duration, this inversion suggests that the U.S. may be on the brink of one of its most severe recessions, highlighting deep-seated concerns about future economic stability. On the other hand, the U.S. economy has continued to outperform expectations and a recession has not materialized as of the current date.

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