Overlord: 6.27 Market Analysis: After the oversold rebound, will it lead to a retest?

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8 months ago

On June 27th, the data privacy solution Privy announced the launch of cross-application wallet functionality, allowing users to log in to other applications using existing embedded wallets, thus achieving interoperability. The initial integration supports Zora, OpenSea, Fantasy, Icebreaker, and Adimverse, with more support to be added in the future.

On June 27th, Rushi Manche, co-founder of Movement, announced on social media that the Movement private test network has been launched today to selected teams.

On June 27th, according to data from The Block, as of June 26th, the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) saw its negative premium rate narrow to 1.24%. Previously reported on June 19th, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart posted on social media that the Ethereum spot ETF is expected to be launched before July 4th.

Market Review

In the previous article, it was mentioned that the market had fallen below the MA120 moving average, indicating a downward trend and providing a warning that the short-term situation is unlikely to change. It was suggested that there might be a small rebound in the market over the weekend. There were no stop-losses for long positions, and profits were made from short positions. The market hit a low of around 58351 on Monday, then rebounded, with the market briefly rebounding to around 62500, an increase of about four thousand points. However, unfortunately, it did not hold above the 62500 watershed, which is the 0.38 Fibonacci level between 56600 and 72000. If this level cannot be sustained, the market is in a weak rebound phase. After testing on Tuesday and Wednesday, the market turned downward again, with a high probability of a second bottom or a direct break below the 56600 level.

Market Analysis

Looking at the hourly chart, it can be seen that the rebound after hitting bottom is still not strong enough. After falling below the MA120 moving average, it is expected that the subsequent market trend will continue to weaken. Personally, it is believed that this oscillation and decline will end this quarter. The market is currently in a typical oversold rebound phase, and there is likely a need for a second bottom, so the bottom is not yet visible. Therefore, the short-term operation tends to be short on rebounds, with resistance focused on the 61300-61600 range, and the bottom target set at 59350-58888. The next two nights are likely to be quite important. If it falls below, the bottom target will be breached at 56600, and support will need to be sought again in the 54-52 range. If held, the market will continue to oscillate in the 59-62-63 range.

At the same time, it is very likely that the SEC will officially approve the ETH spot ETF next week, and the predicted listing date will be brought forward to July 2nd! Thinking back to when the BTC ETF was approved, the market quickly surged, and a short-term peak was reached, refreshing new lows, which can serve as a reference. Major positive news is often negative in the short term but positive in the long term. Friends who are concerned about the ETF can see that although ETH looks strong, it is basically falling step by step. As the saying goes, in the face of a major trend reversal, although various factors may lead to a certain degree of rebound in the market, it does not affect the overall trend. The strategy for ETH is still to aggressively short once it leads the market.

Caution is needed when entering the market, as there are risks involved.

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